The 14th coordinated population projection of the official statistics covers the period up to 2060. It is a system of a total of 30 variants and model calculations. Its core consists of nine main variants (variants 1 to 9). They illustrate the range of possible developments and show how the population development is influenced by the demographic components of fertility, mortality and migration.
Official population projections do not claim to forecast future developments. They help explain how the size and structure of the population can be expected to develop under certain demographic conditions.
As several options are possible regarding the development of demographic components, three assumptions each on fertility, life expectancy and migration were made.
The starting point of the 14th coordinated population projection is a population which in 2018 is characterised by the younger cohorts having increased in numbers due to net immigration and higher birth rates in the last few years. At the same time, the baby boom generation have reached higher working age. The number of older people has already grown markedly. This is why the future changes are expected to be less dramatic than shown in previous projections.
Despite a changed basis and a wider range of assumptions made, the 14th coordinated population projection does not provide an entirely different picture of Germany’s demographic future than earlier projections. It shows that higher fertility and permanently high net immigration would only be able to slow the ageing process rather than to prevent it. The number of people at working age between 20 and 66 years is expected to decrease by between 4 and 6 million by 2035. In thirty years from now, one in ten inhabitants will be 80 or over.
For the overall population, there is a wider range of possible developments. The population is expected to grow at least until 2024. With a moderate development of fertility and life expectancy, it would start to decrease in 2040 at the latest, even if net immigration should remain permanently at a high level. If, however, permanently high net immigration should be accompanied by a further increase in fertility, the population would stabilise after the increase mentioned above. Depending on the development of the demographic factors, there would be between 74 and 84 million people in Germany in 2060.