25 June 2024 – How do extraordinary events such as high incidences of respiratory diseases or heat waves impact the current number of deaths? To make first assessments possible, the Federal Statistical Office provides provisional counts of the deaths recorded by the registrar's offices by day, week and month as a Statistical Report. An estimation model for extrapolation from incomplete data was developed in the Covid-19 pandemic as complete data can be provided only with some delay. This model allows nationwide mortality figures to currently be provided up until 16 June 2024. First comparable results for all Länder will be available about four weeks later.
Development in 2024
In the first two weeks of 2024, mortality figures were below or around the median of the years 2020 to 2023. From the second half of January, death figures rose above the comparative value at the same time as a higher incidence of respiratory diseases was recorded. On the whole, mortality in January was around the comparative value (+1%). The mortality figures in February exceeded the median of the four previous years (+6%; when the leap day is excluded: +2%). As the seasonal flu wave abated in March, mortality figures fell below the comparative value of the previous years (-7%). In April, they were also lower than the comparative value (-7%). When comparing the figures with previous years, it must be noted that the death figures at the beginning of the years and in the spring months of 2021 to 2023 were substantially higher in some weeks due to Covid-19 or influenza waves. In May, mortality figures again were close to the comparative value of the previous years (-1%). The is also the case for the current extrapolation result for the first two weeks of June (0% to -1% in Weeks 23 and 24, from 3 to 16 June).
The press release of 11 June 2024 focusing on May 2024 is available here.
A graphical representation of the individual years and an overview of the development of deaths figures for all Länder (only in German) are also available.
The complete Statistical Report is available for download here.
Development in 2023
Influenza waves affected the development at the start of the year, hardly any anomalies in the further course of the year
In January 2023, the number of deaths in Germany was 14% above the median of the years 2019 to 2022 for that month. According to the Weekly Influenza Report of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), a flu wave passed its peak shortly before the turn of the year. The number of Covid-19 deaths, too, reached another interim high at that time. As these waves faded, the overall death figures decreased at the beginning of the year. As a result, the number of deaths in February (+2%) was around the comparative figure of the four preceding years. According to the Weekly Influenza Report, the criteria indicating a flu wave were again recorded in Weeks 9 to 14 (27 February to 9 April). In March, the high incidence of respiratory diseases coincided with an increase in death figures (+9%).
In April (+3%), mortality figures declined again with the end of the flu wave and therefore fell back to around the comparative value in that month. Then they exceeded the median of the four previous years again in May (+5%). In most weeks since June, mortality figures were close to or below the median.
Towards the end of the year, death figures fell far below that level in December (-5%). When assessing the seasonal development of mortality figures, it is important to bear in mind that a seasonal pattern was observed in each of the three pandemic years (2020 to 2022), which showed markedly higher death figures towards the end of the year and even extraordinary increases compared with pre-pandemic years. This pattern is taken into account in the comparison of the 2023 mortality figures with the median value of the four previous years (2019 to 2022). Compared with the pre-pandemic years, the mortality figures were therefore also exceptionally high around the end of 2023, as was the incidence of respiratory diseases.
Development in 2022
Covid-19 observed mainly in spring and October, heat records in summer and an unusually high incidence of respiratory diseases towards the end of the year
Mortality in Germany was almost back to normal at the beginning of 2022, following exceptionally high death figures at the end of 2021. In January and February, death figures were 5% and 1%, respectively, above the median values of the years 2018 to 2021 for these months. Flu activity and the number of deaths significantly decreased in the course of March in most of the years before the pandemic. Since this effect was delayed until April in 2022, the death figures in March (+8%) were much higher compared with the previous years than in February. The continuing high incidence of Covid-19 deaths in that time may be one explanation for the above-average mortality figures still observed in April (+7%) and May (+8%).
Compared with earlier months, death figures were much higher than the median values of the previous years (+9 to +13%) in the summer months from June to August, in which heat records were broken. At +25%, death figures were particularly high in Week 29 (18 to 24 July). That was an exceptionally hot week. However, figures significantly exceeding the comparative values were also recorded in some of the cooler weeks of the summer months. Covid-19 deaths, too, rose during that time until the end of July and then decreased in August.
In September and October, the mortality figures were 12% and 20%, respectively, above the comparative figures of the previous years. Covid-19 deaths increased once more from the beginning of September to the middle of October, but not to the same extent as total death figures. In November, the difference from the median of the previous years was lower (+8%) and the number of Covid-19 deaths declined again. The death figures observed in December were again markedly above the comparative figure (+23%), with the most significant increase (+38%) recorded in Week 51 (19 to 25 December). According to the Weekly Influenza Report of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the incidence of respiratory diseases in general from November onwards exceeded the peak of serious waves of influenza in the previous years. Approximately 115,000 deaths were recorded in December 2022, a figure above the level reached in previous flu waves.
Development in 2021
Development within 2021: mortality figures below the median of the previous years only in February and March – markedly higher figures in January, November and December
In Germany and all over the world, extremely low levels of respiratory diseases other than Covid-19 were reported at the beginning of 2021. This was particularly evident in the case of flu. The intensity of earlier flu waves was also reflected in the total death figures and resulted in higher case numbers during the winter months. In January 2021 – during the second Covid-19 wave – the death figures in the whole of Germany exceeded the median of the preceding four years by 26%. In that month, the number of additional deaths was almost identical to that of Covid-19 deaths reported to the Robert Koch Institute.
Despite the new Covid-19 deaths, the virtual absence of the flu wave in the 2020/2021 season resulted in total death figures in February (-1%) and March (-6%) which were below the comparative figures of the previous years. During the third Covid-19 wave in April (+4%) and May (+7%), they were back above the comparative figures. In June (+8%), the higher death figures coincided with a heat wave and peaked (+17%) in Week 24 (14 to 20 June), when the heat wave also peaked. In July, mortality figures slightly exceeded the median of the previous years (+3%). In August, they were around the median. In September (+11%) and October (+12%), the mortality figures were again markedly higher than the comparative figures of the previous years. During the fourth Covid-19 wave, the death figures for November and December exceeded the comparative figures by an even greater margin. The number of deaths exceeded the median of the preceding four years by 22% in November and 25% in December.
The Covid-19 deaths reported in autumn and at the end of 2021 can only partly explain the higher death figures. There are several possible causes for the additional increase in death figures. Unidentified Covid-19 deaths or the displacement of deaths within the year caused by the absence of the usual flu wave at the beginning of the year may play a role here (mortality displacement). It is also possible that this reflects the consequences of postponing operations and preventive examinations. It is however currently not possible to quantify the relative impact of individual effects.
Development in 2020
Minor flu epidemic, hot summer and Covid-19 waves leave their mark on 2020
The death figures showed various special trends in the course of 2020. In the first two months of the year, the number of deaths was below or around the median of the years 2016 to 2019. During the typical flu season at the beginning of the year, mortality figures did not increase as markedly as in 2017 or 2018, when the impact of the flu waves had been comparatively strong. As of the end of March, the Covid-19 pandemic had an impact on the development of death figures for the first time. In all of April, death figures were 10% higher than the median of previous years. At the same time, there was an increase in the number of Covid-19 deaths. When they fell, the death figures also returned to around the previous four years’ median from the month of May. In August they were up again. This often happens in the summer, and in 2020 it also appeared to be due to a heat wave. In September, the figures still were at a slightly higher level. Then the difference of the mortality figures from the median of the previous years increased again from mid-October. The number of people who died and who had had laboratory confirmed Covid-19 disease increased at the same time. In December, the death figures were 32% higher than the previous years' median.
Methodological notes
The current evaluation of the mortality figures for 2024 is based on first provisional data (raw data). These provisional data are merely counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out. The data are still incomplete due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the routines of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics. In some cases, the reporting delay differs significantly between the individual Länder. To provide timely data that are as accurate and comparable as possible, an estimation procedure for extrapolating incomplete death figures is therefore applied to the most recent data.
From March 2020, the development of the death figures should only be interpreted in the light of the measures taken to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition to preventing Covid-19 deaths, these measures and the change of behaviour may have contributed to reducing the number of deaths from other infectious diseases such as flu. This also has an impact on the difference from the median. Decreases or increases in the number of deaths from other causes may also have an effect on total deaths. The mortality figures, however, contain no information on the incidence of individual causes of death.
The median has been used for the comparison with previous years since reference month July 2021. The advantage of using the median instead of the arithmetic mean is that it is less prone to specific developments and outliers. Press release no. 373 of 10 August 2021 contains more information on how the median is calculated and used.
Further background information on the results and methodology is available from an article in "WISTA – Wirtschaft und Statistik" on death figures during the coronavirus pandemic and the notes in the Statistical Report entitled "Sterbefälle nach Tagen, Wochen und Monaten 2020 - 2024" (Deaths, by day, week and month, 2020 to 2024).