Press release No. 090 of 8 March 2024

Production in industry
January 2024 (in real terms, provisional):
+1.0% on the previous month (seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-5.5% on the same month a year earlier (calendar adjusted)

December 2023 (in real terms, revised):
-2.0% on the previous month (seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-3.5% on the same month a year earlier (calendar adjusted)

WIESBADEN – Production in industry in real terms (price adjusted) was up 1.0% in January 2024 month on month after seasonal and calendar adjustment, according to provisional data provided by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that production was 1.5% lower in the period from November 2023 to January 2024 than in the previous three months. After revision of the provisional results, production decreased by 2.0% in December 2023 compared with November 2023 (provisional figure: -1.6%). Compared with January 2023, production was 5.5% lower after adjustment for calendar effects.

Several sectors contributed to the increase in production in industry in January 2024. In construction, in particular, the month-on-month increase of 2.7% (after seasonal and calendar adjustment) had a positive impact on overall performance, following the 3.1% decline in production in this sector in the previous month. The developments in the chemical industry (+4.7%), the food industry (+5.9%) and in machine maintenance and assembly (+11.1%) continued to have a positive effect. By contrast, the drop in production in the automotive industry had a negative impact on results (-7.6%).

In January 2024, production in industry excluding energy and construction was up 1.1% from December 2023 after seasonal and calendar adjustment. The production of capital goods decreased by 2.1%. By contrast, the production of intermediate goods increased by 4.4% and that of consumer goods by 4.0%. Outside industry, a 3.7% decrease in energy production was observed in January 2024. Production in construction rose by 2.7% month on month. Compared with January 2023, industrial production was down 5.3% in January 2024 after adjustment for calendar variations.

Production up in energy-intensive industrial branches

Production in energy-intensive industrial branches increased by 2.8% in January 2024 from December 2023, after elimination of seasonal and calendar effects. The development in the chemical industry made a significant contribution to this growth. The three-month on three-month comparison showed that production in these industrial branches was 1.4% lower in the period from November 2023 to January 2024 than in the previous three months. Compared with January 2023, production in energy-intensive industrial branches was down 4.3% in January 2024. An analysis on the Production index for energy-intensive industrial branches (only in German) is available on the “Industry, manufacturing” page of the Federal Statistical Office’s website.

Rebasing the indices for the production index to the year 2021

As of reference month January 2024, the production index for industry has been rebased from 2015 to the year 2021. The rebasing comprises the following aspects: 

• The index now refers to 2021, the new base year. The index therefore puts the volume of production in the particular reporting period in relation to the average in 2021. The abbreviated form of the base year, as used in tables and graphics, is changed from "2015 = 100" to "2021 = 100".
• The weighting structure was updated when the base year was changed. The current weights of the index now refer to gross value added at factor cost in industry in 2021 instead of 2015, weights remain unchanged for periods prior to 2021; the construction industry is an exception, however. The index values as of January 2021 have been recalculated with the updated weights for base year 2021. By contrast, the index values up to December 2020 inclusive were only rebased in purely mathematical terms, i.e. they are based on the original weights for base year 2015. The new weighting schemes (only in German) are available in the “Tables” section of the "Industry, manufacturing" page of the Federal Statistical Office’s website.
• When the base year was changed to 2021, the classification of branches in construction was modified. Now the breakdown by branch in construction is in line with the international Classification of Economic Activities. Before, a national classification by “segments” was used for the production index where the construction industry was concerned. The change of classification mainly affects the partial results of the production index within the construction sector; therefore, the change of classification must be considered when these results are interpreted. An article in the current news section on the “Industry, manufacturing” page provides more information on the methodological adjustments made to the production index for construction (only in German).

Detailed methodological explanations regarding the change of base year in the production index and the change of classification in construction are contained in the article entitled “Umstellung des Produktionsindex im Produzierenden Gewerbe auf das Basisjahr 2021“ in the "WISTA – Wirtschaft und Statistik" journal, edition 2/2024 (only in German).

Methodological notes:

The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons of seasonally and calendar adjusted figures with those of the previous month or quarter. These reflect short-term economic trends. Year-on-year comparisons of calendar adjusted results enable long-term comparisons of levels and are not influenced by seasonal fluctuations or calendar effects. The results of month-on-month, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year comparisons may differ considerably due to the Covid-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine.

The rates of change are based on the production index for industry. The average figure for 2021 is used as the basis of the index and set to 100 index points (2021 = 100). The X13 JDemetra+ method was used for calendar and seasonal adjustment. The manufacture of food products (Division 10 of WZ) is referred to as the “food industry” in this press release. The manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (Division 20 of WZ) is referred to as the “chemical industry” in this press release. The manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (Division 29 of WZ) is referred to as the “automotive industry” in this press release. The repair and installation of machinery and equipment (Division 33 of WZ) is referred to as “machine maintenance and assembly” in this press release.

The five branches referred to here as “energy-intensive” have particularly high energy demands in relation to their gross value added. In the reference year of 2021, they collectively accounted for 77% of total industrial energy consumption. Their proportion of industrial gross value added stood at 17%. In 2021, just under one million people (929,599) were employed in the 6,986 industrial establishments of these branches in Germany.

More information:

Basic data and long time series on the production index in industry can be found in the table Indices of production in manufacturing (42153-0001) in the GENESIS-Online database. It contains the time series of the production index for energy-intensive industrial branches from 2005 onwards.

A dossier on the "Short-term indicators" page of the Federal Statistical Office's website provides an analysis of the relationship between material shortages, new orders, production and prices in industry. Detailed information on production in energy-intensive industrial branches (only in German) is available on the "Industry, manufacturing" page.

The production index is also available on Dashboard Germany at www.dashboard-deutschland.de (only in German). This data portal of the Federal Statistical Office combines up-to-date indicators from official statistics producers and other data providers on the topics of the economy, finance, health and mobility. The portal also contains the Economic Pulse Monitor tool (Pulsmesser für die Wirtschaft) (only in German) for real-time economic monitoring.