Press release No. 048 of 7 February 2024
Production in industry
December 2023 (in real terms, provisional):
-1.6% on the previous month (seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-3.0% on the same month a year earlier (calendar adjusted)
November 2023 (in real terms, revised):
-0.2% on the previous month (seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-4.3% on the same month a year earlier (calendar adjusted)
2023 (in real terms, provisional):
-1.5% on the previous year (calendar adjusted)
WIESBADEN – Production in industry in real terms (price adjusted) was down 1.6% in December 2023 month on month after seasonal and calendar adjustment, according to provisional data provided by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that production was 1.8% lower in the period from October to December 2023 than in the previous three months. After revision of the provisional results, production decreased by 0.2% in November 2023 compared with October 2023 (provisional figure: -0.7%). In 2023 as a whole, production was 1.5% lower than in 2022 after adjustment for calendar effects. The biggest declines were recorded in energy-intensive industrial branches and in energy production.
Particularly sharp declines were registered in December 2023 in the chemical industry, an important sector, (-7.6% on the previous month after seasonal and calendar adjustment) and in the construction industry (-3.4%). Although declines were less pronounced, production in December 2023 was also down in many other branches of economic activity, however. By contrast, production growth in the automotive sector (+4.0%) had a positive impact on overall performance.
In December 2023, production in industry excluding energy and construction was down 1.5% from November 2023 after seasonal and calendar adjustment. The production of intermediate goods declined by 5.2%, while consumer goods production decreased by 0.9%. By contrast, the production of capital goods rose by 1.3%. Outside industry, energy production increased by 4.1% in December 2023.
Compared with December 2022, production in industry was down 3.0% in December 2023 after adjustment for calendar effects. Production in industry excluding energy and construction decreased by 3.7% over the same period.
Production in energy-intensive industrial branches declined by 5.8% in December 2023 from November 2023, after elimination of seasonal and calendar effects. The three-month on three-month comparison showed that production in these industrial branches was 2.2% lower in the period from October to December 2023 than in the previous three months. Compared with December 2022, production in energy-intensive industrial branches was down 4.0% in December 2023. An analysis on the Production index for energy-intensive industrial branches (only in German) is available on the “Industry, manufacturing” page of the Federal Statistical Office’s website.
2023 as a whole: production in the chemical industry at lowest level since 1995
In 2023 as a whole, production in industry was 1.5% lower in calendar-adjusted terms than in the previous year, with industrial production down 0.7%, production in energy production down 15.0% and production in construction down 0.8% year on year. Overall, production remained relatively stable until May 2023. However, with the exception of a period of stagnation in August 2023, it then declined consistently month on month in the subsequent months, after adjustment for seasonal and calendar variations.
In industry, production in energy-intensive industrial branches experienced a particular decline in 2023 (-10.2% on the previous year). Of these, the biggest branch is the chemical industry, which saw production in 2023 drop 10.6% compared with 2022. Production in this area had already experienced a sharp decline in 2022 as a result of the surge in energy prices. In the course of 2023, production then tended to stabilise at a low level until the marked decrease in December. Ultimately, production in the chemical industry in 2023 dropped to the lowest level since 1995. In the manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, also an energy-intensive sector, production in 2023 was 14.1% lower than in the previous year. Here, the drop in production observed in 2022 continued. A similar development was observed in the manufacture of basic metals, where production in 2023 was down 3.5% compared with the previous year.
The decline in energy production also had a significant bearing on the overall result for production in industry in 2023. It fell occasionally to a very low level, particularly around mid-2023, which was likely attributable in part to low demand for energy in industry and favourable electricity import opportunities. In Germany, there was a particular drop in coal-based electricity generation. The closure of the last nuclear power plants in mid-April 2023 also contributed to the decline. By contrast, electricity generation from wind power showed a positive performance trend and reached its highest value ever in 2023.
Increased production in the automotive industry (+11.5 %) had a positive impact on production in industry excluding energy and construction. In 2023, manufacturers of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers completed some of their unfilled orders, which were still at a very high level at the start of the year, while new orders in 2023 were down significantly on the previous year. Over the longer term, however, stocks of orders in the automotive industry were still at a high level in November 2023 despite the decline observed in the course of the year.
Methodological notes:
The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons of seasonally and calendar adjusted figures with those of the previous month or quarter. These reflect short-term economic trends. Year-on-year comparisons of calendar adjusted results enable long-term comparisons of levels and are not influenced by seasonal fluctuations or calendar effects. The results of month-on-month, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year comparisons may differ considerably due to the Covid-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine.
The rates of change are based on the production index for industry. The average figure for 2015 is used as the basis of the index and set to 100 index points (2015 = 100). The X13 JDemetra+ method was used for calendar and seasonal adjustment. The manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (Division 20 of WZ) is referred to as the “chemical industry” in this press release. The manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (Division 29 of WZ) is referred to as the “automotive industry” in this press release.
The five branches referred to here as “energy-intensive” have particularly high energy demands in relation to their gross value added. In the reference year of 2021, they collectively accounted for 77% of total industrial energy consumption. Their proportion of industrial gross value added stood at 17%. In 2021, just under one million people (929,599) were employed in the 6,986 industrial establishments of these branches in Germany.
More information:
Basic data and long time series on the production index in industry can be found in the table Indices of production in manufacturing (42153-0001) in the GENESIS-Online database. It contains the time series of the production index for energy-intensive industrial branches from 2005 onwards.
A dossier on the "Short-term indicators" page of the Federal Statistical Office's website provides an analysis of the relationship between material shortages, new orders, production and prices in industry. Detailed information on production in energy-intensive industrial branches (only in German) is available on the "Industry, manufacturing" page.
The production index is also available on Dashboard Germany at www.dashboard-deutschland.de (only in German). This data portal of the Federal Statistical Office combines up-to-date indicators from official statistics producers and other data providers on the topics of the economy, finance, health and mobility. The portal also contains the Economic Pulse Monitor tool (Pulsmesser für die Wirtschaft) (only in German) for real-time economic monitoring.
