Press release No. 026 of 17 January 2024

Stock of orders in manufacturing, November 2023
-0.7%, in real terms, on the previous month (seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-5.7%, in real terms, on the same month a year earlier (calendar adjusted)

Range of the stock of orders
6.9 months

WIESBADEN – The real (price adjusted) stock of orders in manufacturing was down 0.7% in November 2023 month on month after seasonal and calendar adjustment, according to provisional figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The stock of orders therefore decreased for the fifth month in succession. The calendar adjusted stock of orders was 5.7% lower in November 2023 than in November 2022.

 

The month-on-month decrease in the stock of orders was primarily due to the development in the automotive industry (-3.7%). As a result of supply shortages, historically large stocks of orders had accumulated in the years 2020 to 2022 especially in the automotive industry. Since February 2023, the stock of orders in this sector has been declining. Over the longer term, however, stocks of orders are still at a high level in the automotive industry despite the large decrease observed in the course of the year.

Unfilled foreign orders in November 2023 were down 0.8% on October 2023 and the stock of domestic orders was down 0.4%.

The stock of orders for producers of capital goods contracted by 0.9%, and producers of intermediate goods experienced a decrease of 0.6%. Producers of consumer goods saw the stock of orders rise by 2.0%.

Range of the stock of orders unchanged at 6.9 months

In November 2023, the range of the stock of orders remained unchanged at 6.9 months. For producers of intermediate goods, the range stood at 3.8 months, as in the previous month. The range declined to 9.3 months (October 2023: 9.5 months) for producers of capital goods. For producers of consumer goods, the range of the stock of orders remained unchanged at 3.4 months.

Assuming turnover remains constant and no new orders are received, the range indicates the number of months local units would, in theory, have to produce goods in order to fill all orders on hand. It is calculated as the ratio between the current stock of orders and average turnover of the last twelve months in the respective branch.

Methodological notes:

The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons of seasonally and calendar adjusted figures with those of the previous month. These reflect short-term economic trends. Year-on-year comparisons of calendar adjusted results enable long-term comparisons of levels and are not influenced by seasonal fluctuations or calendar effects. The results of month-on-month and year-on-year comparisons may differ considerably due to the Covid-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine.

The stock of orders comprises all new orders received by the end of the reference month which have neither generated any turnover nor been cancelled by that time. The rates of change are based on the price adjusted index of the stock of orders in manufacturing. The average figure for 2015 is used as the basis of the index and set to 100 index points (2015 = 100). The X13 JDemetra+ method was used for calendar and seasonal adjustment. The stock of orders is covered and evaluated in accordance with the Classification of Economic Activities (WZ 2008). In the process, information on the stock of orders and on new orders is only collected in selected branches of manufacturing. The manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (Division 29 of WZ) is referred to as the “automotive industry” in this press release.

More information:

Detailed data are available from the GENESIS-Online database (42155-0004 indices of the stock of orders and 42113-0001 Ranges of the stock of orders).

A dossier on the "Short-term indicators" page of the Federal Statistical Office's website provides an analysis of the relationship between material shortages, new orders, production and prices in industry. Detailed information on production in energy-intensive industrial branches (only in German) is available on the "Industry, manufacturing" page.