Press release No. 463 of 6 December 2023

New orders in manufacturing, October 2023 (in real terms, provisional):
-3.7% on the previous month (seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-7.3% on the same month a year earlier (calendar adjusted)

Turnover in manufacturing, October 2023 (in real terms, provisional):
-0.5% on the previous month (seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-2.1% on the same month a year earlier (calendar adjusted)

WIESBADEN – Real (price adjusted) new orders in manufacturing were down 3.7% in October 2023 month on month after seasonal and calendar adjustment, according to provisional figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders were 4.6% lower in the period from August to October 2023 than in the previous three months. New orders excluding large-scale orders were up 0.7% in October 2023 compared with the previous month. After revision of the provisional results, new orders in September 2023 increased by 0.7% compared with August 2023 (provisional figure: +0.2%).

Within manufacturing, much of the month-on-month decrease in October 2023 was due to the performance of the "manufacture of machinery and equipment" sector, where new orders declined by 13.5% after seasonal and calendar adjustment (in September 2023, new orders had risen by 9.8% in this sector). In addition, new orders were down in major sectors, that is, in the manufacture of fabricated metal products (except machinery and equipment), the manufacture of basic metals, the manufacture of electrical equipment and the automotive industry. This also negatively impacted the overall result in October 2023. By contrast, the 20.2% increase in new orders in the manufacture of other transport equipment (aircraft, ships, trains, etc.) had a positive impact. The sharp increase was due to large-scale orders received in this sector.

In October 2023, new orders were down on the previous month both in the capital goods sector (-6.0%) and the intermediate goods sector (-1.4%). The consumer goods sector reported an increase of 2.8%.

Foreign orders fell by 7.6%, with new orders from the euro area decreasing by 7.6% and orders from the rest of the world by 7.4%. Domestic orders rose by 2.4%.

 

Turnover in October 2023 down 0.5% on the previous month

According to provisional figures, real turnover in manufacturing (seasonally and calendar adjusted) was down 0.5% in October 2023 from the previous month. The calendar adjusted turnover was 2.1% lower than in October 2022. After revision of the provisional data, there was a decrease of 1.4% in September 2023 from August 2023 (provisional figure: -1.6%).

Methodological notes:

The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons of seasonally and calendar adjusted figures with those of the previous month or quarter. These reflect short-term economic trends. Year-on-year comparisons of calendar adjusted results enable long-term comparisons of levels and are not influenced by seasonal fluctuations or calendar effects. The results of month-on-month, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year comparisons may differ considerably because of the Covid-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine.

New orders and turnover in manufacturing are recorded and evaluated in accordance with the Classification of Economic Activities, 2008 edition (WZ 2008). Information on new orders is collected only in selected branches (only in German) of manufacturing. The rates of change are based on the price adjusted indices of new orders and of turnover in manufacturing. The average figure for 2015 is used as the basis of the index and set to 100 index points (2015 = 100). X13 JDemetra+ was used for seasonal and calendar adjustment.

The manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (Division 29 of WZ) is referred to as the “automotive industry” in this press release.

More information:

Detailed data and long time series are available in the GENESIS-Online database (42151-0004 indices of new orders, 42151-0008 indices of new orders excluding large-scale orders, and 42152-0004 turnover indices).

A dossier on the "Short-term indicators" page of the Federal Statistical Office's website provides an analysis of the relationship between material shortages, new orders, production and prices in industry. Detailed information on production in energy-intensive industrial branches (only in German) is available on the "Industry, manufacturing" page.

Information on new orders in manufacturing is also available on Dashboard Germany at www.dashboard-deutschland.de (only in German). This data portal of the Federal Statistical Office combines up-to-date indicators from official statistics producers and other data providers on the topics of the economy, finance, health and mobility. The portal also contains the Economic Pulse Monitor tool (Pulsmesser für die Wirtschaft) (only in German) for real-time economic monitoring.