Press release No. 102 of 14 March 2023
WIESBADEN – 82,862 people died in Germany in February 2023, according to extrapolated figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). This corresponds roughly to the 2019 to 2022 median for that month (+2%). At the end of 2022, death figures clearly exceeded the median of the previous four years. By February, the number of deaths had gradually returned to normal. They were around the comparative figures of the preceding years (6%) around the turn from February to March 2023, that is, in Weeks 8 and 9 (from 20 February to 5 March).
| Total, 2023 | Difference from median 2019-2022 | Relative difference from ... | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| median 2019-2022 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |||
| number | % | ||||||
| As at: 14 March 2023 | |||||||
| January | 98,424 | +11,151 | +13 | +16 | +16 | -8 | +10 |
| February | 82,862 | +1,262 | +2 | +2 | +4 | +1 | 0 |
Covid-19 deaths markedly down since the beginning of the year
At present, comparisons of total deaths with the number of Covid-19 deaths reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) by death date can be made up to Week 7 of 2023 (13 to 19 February). So far, 389 Covid-19 deaths have been reported to the RKI with a date of death in that week, that is 75 more cases than in the previous week. At the same time, total deaths were by 480 cases, or 2%, above the median of the preceding four years. In each of the last two weeks of the preceding year, more than 1,000 Covid-19 deaths had been recorded. This means that Covid-19 deaths fell markedly since the beginning of 2023.
Death figures in February inconspicuous in most European countries
The EuroMOMO network for mortality monitoring compares findings about excess mortality across Europe based on its own extrapolation from incomplete data and using its own excess mortality approach. Moderate excess mortality was recorded in February in some southern European countries (Italy, Portugal, Spain). In the rest of Europe, no excess mortality or low excess mortality was observed.
Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany:
The 2022 and 2023 ad hoc evaluation is based on initial provisional data (raw data). These are simply counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out. The data are still incomplete due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the routines of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics.
The Federal Statistical Office has developed an estimation model for the extrapolation from incomplete data because of the high relevance of timely mortality figures during the Covid-19 pandemic. This model allows nationwide mortality figures to be provided after approximately one week. The mortality figures of the last nine weeks are extrapolated using the figures submitted so far by the registrar’s offices. Later figures can be slightly higher or lower as a result. The estimate is based on the patterns observed in past reporting delays, some of which differ considerably between regions. It therefore takes roughly four weeks until comparable results for the Länder are available. The ad hoc evaluation is updated every week on the “Deaths, life expectancy” page. New results are available every Tuesday.
Periods of excess mortality within a particular year can be identified on the basis of the provisional death figures. This reveals direct and indirect effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the impact of other factors on the death figures at an early stage. Here we compare the figures with the medianof several previous years to account for the varying impact of recurring seasonal effects (such as flu or heat waves). The lowest and highest death figures from the four previous years are not included in the calculation of the median value. The advantage of using that comparative figure instead of the arithmetic mean is that it is less prone to specific developments and outliers. This intra-annual comparison with the median cannot account for the impact of the rising life expectancy and the increasing proportion of older people on the expected number of deaths.
From March 2020, the trend of the death figures should only be interpreted in the light of the measures taken to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition to preventing Covid-19 deaths, these measures and changes in behaviour may have contributed to temporary reductions in the number of deaths from other infectious diseases such as flu. Decreases or increases in the number of deaths due to other causes may also have an effect on total deaths. The mortality figures, however, contain no information on the incidence of individual causes of death. Relevant information for the years 2020 (only in german) and 2021 (only in german) has been published in separate press releases.
To give the final evaluation of the mortality development, the number of deaths is then put in relation to the actual population in order to consider the ageing process of the population, for instance. The final results which are required for this, including all late reports of deaths, are usually available in the middle of the subsequent year. Information on the relevant results for the first two years of the pandemic is given in press release No 313 of 26 July 2022.
The provisional mortality figures relate to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. To date, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has published the reported Covid-19 deaths by death date until Week 11 of 2023. Accordingly, these can currently be compared with the provisional total death figures up to that week. This does not include cases for which no information on the date of death was reported, or for which the information was implausible. The results have not been corrected yet for late reports and are expected to increase accordingly. Further background information on these data can be found on the RKI website.
More information:
A graphical overview of the development of mortality figures in all Länder is available on a special page of the Federal Statistical Office’s website.
The Federal Statistical Office provides more information on the ad hoc evaluation of mortality figures on its “Deaths, life expectancy” page and its “Corona statistics” webpage.
We discuss the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic for population projections also in our “StatGespräch“ (only in german) podcast on age structure. There we shed some light on the role which life expectancy plays for the population development in Germany.
