Press release No. 060 of 14 February 2023

WIESBADEN – 98,632 people died in Germany in January 2023, according to extrapolated figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). This is 13%, or roughly 11,000 cases, above the median of the years 2019 to 2022 for that month. According to the Weekly Influenza Report (only in german) of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the flu epidemic reached its peak shortly before the turn of the year. The number of Covid-19 deaths, too, reached another interim high at that time. As these waves faded, overall death figures, too, decreased at the beginning of the year. In Week 1 of 2023 (2 to 8 January), death figures were substantially above the median of the previous four years (+26% or +5,191 cases). That difference fell to +3% or +622 cases by Week 4 (23 to 29 January).

Covid-19 deaths markedly down at the beginning of the year

At present, comparisons of total deaths with the number of Covid-19 deaths reported to the RKI by death date can be made up to Week 3 of 2023 (16 to 22 January). So far, 384 Covid-19 deaths have been reported to the RKI with a date of death in that week. At the same time, total deaths were 8%, or 1,500 cases, above the median of the preceding four years. In each of the last two weeks of the preceding year, more than 1,000 Covid-19 deaths had been recorded. This means that the figures were markedly down in January 2023.

Higher mortality figures at the beginning of the month also in many other European countries

The EuroMOMO network for mortality monitoring compares findings about excess mortality across Europe based on its own extrapolation from incomplete data and using its own excess mortality approach. At the beginning of January 2023, at least moderate excess mortality was recorded in almost all European countries. Both the number of countries affected and the extent of excess mortality fell markedly in the course of the month.

Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany:

The 2022 and 2023 ad hoc evaluation is based on first provisional data (raw data). These are merely counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out. The data are still incomplete due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the routines of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics.

The Federal Statistical Office has developed an estimation model for the extrapolation from incomplete data because of the high relevance of timely mortality figures during the Covid-19 pandemic. This model allows nationwide mortality figures to be provided after approximately one week. The mortality figures of the last nine weeks are extrapolated using the figures submitted so far by the registrar’s offices. Later figures can be slightly higher or lower as a result. The estimate is based on the patterns observed in past reporting delays, some of which differ considerably between regions. It therefore takes roughly four weeks until comparable results for the Länder are available. The ad hoc evaluation is updated every week on the “Deaths, life expectancy” page. New results are released every Tuesday.

Periods of excess mortality within a particular year can be identified on the basis of the provisional death figures. This reveals direct and indirect effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the impact of other factors on the death figures at an early stage. Here we compare the figures with the medianof several previous years to account for the varying impact of recurring seasonal effects (such as flu or heat waves). The lowest and highest death figures from the four previous years are not included in the calculation of the median value. The advantage of using that comparative figure instead of the arithmetic mean is that it is less prone to specific developments and outliers. This intra-annual comparison with the median cannot account for the impact of the rising life expectancy and the increasing proportion of older people on the expected number of deaths.

From March 2020, the trend of the death figures should only be interpreted in the light of the measures taken to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition to preventing Covid-19 deaths, these measures and changes in behaviour may have contributed to temporary reductions in the number of deaths from other infectious diseases such as flu. Decreases or increases in the number of deaths from other causes may also have an effect on total deaths. The mortality figures, however, contain no information on the incidence of individual causes of death. Relevant information for the years 2020 (only in german) and 2021 has been published in separate press releases.

To give the final evaluation of the mortality development, the number of deaths is then put in relation to the actual population in order to consider the ageing process of the population, for instance. The final results which are required for this, including all late reports of deaths, are usually available in the middle of the subsequent year. Information on the relevant results for the first two years of the pandemic is given in press release No 313 of 26 July 2022.

The provisional mortality figures relate to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. To date, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has published the reported Covid-19 deaths by death date until Week 3 of 2023. Accordingly, these can currently be compared with the provisional total death figures up to that week. This does not include cases for which no information on the date of death was reported, or for which the information was implausible. The results have not been corrected yet for late reports and are expected to increase as a consequence. Further background information on these data can be found on the RKI website.

More information:

A graphical overview of the development of mortality figures in all Länder is available on a special page of the Federal Statistical Office’s website.

The Federal Statistical Office provides more information on the ad hoc evaluation of mortality figures on its “Deaths, life expectancy” page and its “Corona statistics” webpage.

We discuss the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic for population projections also in our “StatGespräch“ (only in german) podcast on age structure. There we shed some light on the role which life expectancy plays for the population development in Germany.