Press release No. 012 of 10 January 2023
WIESBADEN – In 2022, 1.06 million people died in Germany, according to provisional results of an ad-hoc evaluation carried out by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The number of deaths rose by 3.4%, or 35,000, compared with the previous year. In contrast to the first two years of the pandemic, the increase in female deaths (+4.3%) was stronger than for men (+2.5%). It had been the other way round in 2020 and in 2021. Death figures in December 2022 were 19% above the comparative figure of the four previous years.
Increase in death figures again exceeded impact of the ageing effect in 2022
Older people account for a growing proportion of the population which is why increasing annual numbers of deaths in Germany have been factored in for about 20 years. At the same time, however, life expectancy was trending upwards before the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. The increasing life expectancy therefore diminished the ageing effect. In the first two pandemic years, the increase had already been stronger than in almost all previous years. The rise of 3.4% last year again exceeded the average increase. According to provisional calculations, only about a fifth of the total increase in 2022 can be attributed to the growing number of older people.
Higher death figures during the Covid-19 wave from March to May
Mortality in Germany was almost back to normal at the beginning of 2022, following exceptionally high death figures at the end of 2021. In January and February, death figures were 5% and 1%, respectively, above the median values of the years 2018 to 2021 for these months. Flu activity and the number of deaths significantly decreased in the course of March in most of the years before the pandemic. Since this effect was delayed into April in 2022, death figures in March (+8%) were much higher compared with the previous years than in February. The continuing high incidence of Covid-19 deaths in that time may be one explanation for the above-average death figures still observed in April (+7%) and May (+8%).
Markedly increased death figures in the summer months characterised by heat records
Compared with earlier months, death figures were much higher than the median values of the previous years (+9 to +13%) in the summer months from July to August, which were characterised by heat records. At +25%, death figures were particularly high in Week 29 (18 to 24 July). That was an exceptionally hot week. However, figures significantly exceeding the comparative values were also recorded in some of the cooler weeks of the summer months. Covid-19 deaths, too, rose during that time until the end of July and then decreased in August.
Very high death figures at the end of the year
In September and October, death figures were 11% and 20%, respectively, above the comparative figures of the previous years. Covid-19 deaths increased from the beginning of September to the middle of October, but not to the same extent as total death figures. The difference from the median of the previous years was lower in November (+7%) and the number of Covid-19 deaths declined. Based on an extrapolation, the end-of-year death figures observed in December again were markedly above the comparative figure (+19%), with the most significant increase (+32%) recorded in Week 51 (19 to 25 December). According to the current Weekly Influenza Report (only in german) of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the incidence of respiratory diseases in general from November onwards exceeded the peak of serious waves of influenza in the previous years. More than 110,000 deaths were recorded in December 2022, a figure above the level reached in previous flu waves.
| Mortality figures 2022 | Difference from median 2018-2021 | Relative difference from ... | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| median 2018-2021 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |||
| number | % | ||||||
| As at: 9 January 2023 | |||||||
| January | 89,432 | +4,389 | +5 | +5 | +5 | +5 | -16 |
| February | 82,787 | +1,187 | +1 | -4 | +2 | +3 | +1 |
| March | 93,708 | +6,640 | +8 | -13 | +8 | +7 | +14 |
| April | 86,167 | +5,459 | +7 | +8 | +11 | +3 | +5 |
| May | 81,751 | +5,999 | +8 | +10 | +8 | +8 | +1 |
| June | 79,396 | +6,575 | +9 | +15 | +8 | +10 | +3 |
| July | 85,857 | +9,702 | +13 | +14 | +12 | +16 | +12 |
| August | 86,307 | +8,921 | +12 | +10 | +18 | +10 | +13 |
| September | 80,583 | +7,950 | +11 | +16 | +13 | +9 | +3 |
| October | 93,713 | +15,319 | +20 | +27 | +22 | +17 | +10 |
| November | 87,616 | +5,432 | +7 | +17 | +12 | +2 | -7 |
| December | 111,403 | +18,153 | +19 | +38 | +34 | +2 | +8 |
Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany:
The 2022 ad hoc evaluation is based on initial provisional data (raw data). These are merely counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out. The data are still incomplete due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the routines of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics.
The Federal Statistical Office has developed an estimation model for the extrapolation from incomplete data because of the high relevance of timely mortality figures during the Covid-19 pandemic. This model allows nationwide mortality figures to be provided after approximately one week. The mortality figures of the last nine weeks are extrapolated using the figures submitted so far by the registrar’s offices. Later figures can be slightly higher or lower as a result. The estimate is based on the patterns observed in past reporting delays, some of which differ considerably between regions. It therefore takes roughly four weeks until comparable results for the Länder are available. The ad hoc evaluation is updated every week on the “Deaths, life expectancy” page. New results are released every Tuesday.
Periods of excess mortality within a particular year can be identified on the basis of the provisional death figures. This reveals direct and indirect effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the impact of other factors on the death figures at an early stage. Here we compare the figures with the median of several previous years to account for the varying impact of recurring seasonal effects (such as flue or heat waves). The lowest and highest death figures from the four previous years are not included in the calculation of the median value. The advantage of using that comparative figure instead of the arithmetic mean is that it is less prone to specific developments and outliers. This intra-annual comparison with the median cannot account for the impact of the rising life expectancy and the increasing proportion of older people on the expected number of deaths. The effect can be calculated for the entire calendar year using decomposition methods. For the purpose, provisional death figures by age group and sex were calculated and data of the 15th coordinated population projection (from variant 8) were used for a first assessment.
From March 2020, the figures should only be interpreted in the light of the measures taken to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition to preventing Covid-19 deaths, these measures and changes in behaviour may have contributed to reducing the number of deaths from other infectious diseases such as flu. This also has an impact on the comparison with previous years. The results of the 2020 causes of death statistics (only in german) suggest that this was the case. Decreases or increases in the number of deaths due to other causes may also have an effect on total deaths. The mortality figures, however, contain no information on the incidence of individual causes of death. Relevant information for the years 2020 (only in german) and 2021 has been published in separate press releases.
To give the final evaluation of the mortality development, the number of deaths is then put in relation to the actual population in order to consider the ageing process of the population, for instance. The final results which are required for this, including all late reports of deaths, are usually available in the middle of the subsequent year. Information on the relevant results for the first two years of the pandemic is given in press release No 313 of 26 July 2022.
The provisional mortality figures relate to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. To date, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has published the reported Covid-19 deaths by death date until Week 50 of 2022. Accordingly, these can currently be compared with the provisional total death figures up to that week. This does not include cases for which no information on the date of death was reported, or for which the information was implausible. The results have not been corrected yet for late reports and are expected to increase as a consequence. Further background information on these data can be found on the RKI website.
More information:
A graphical overview of the development of mortality figures in all Länder is available on a special page of the Federal Statistical Office’s website.
The Federal Statistical Office provides more information on the ad hoc evaluation of mortality figures on its “Deaths, life expectancy” page and its “Corona statistics” webpage.
We discuss the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic for population projections also in our “StatGespräch“ (only in german) podcast on age structure. There we shed some light on the role which life expectancy plays for the population development in Germany.
