Press release No. 113 of 15 March 2022
WIESBADEN – 81,510 people died in Germany in February 2022, according to extrapolated figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). This corresponds roughly to the 2018 to 2021 median for that month (40 fewer cases ). After the death figures approached the median value of the previous years in January, mortality continued to return to normal in February. At the end of 2021, death figures clearly exceeded the median values of the previous years.
Number of reported COVID-19 deaths has increased since the end of January
At present, comparisons of total deaths with the number of COVID-19 deaths reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) by death date can be made up to Week 7 of 2022 (14 to 20 February). So far, 1,248 COVID-19 deaths have been reported to the RKI with a date of death in that week. After the figure decreased for seven consecutive weeks from the middle of December, it started to increase again at the end of January. In Week 7, total deaths were 3%, or 544 cases, above the median of the four preceding years.
Absence of influenza wave and COVID-19 deaths seem to offset each other
According to the current Weekly Influenza Report of the RKI , there has yet been no flu wave in the winter season 2021/2022. This may explain why the death figures at the beginning of 2022 were around or just slightly above the median of the previous years despite the continuing COVID-19 deaths which have even increased in recent weeks. At present, both effects, that is, the absence of the flu wave and more COVID-19 deaths, seem to offset each other.
| Total 2022 | Difference from median 2018-2021 | COVID-19-Deaths | Relative difference from ... | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| median 2018-2021 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||||
| number | % | |||||||
| Sources: total death figures: Federal Statistical Office (as at 14 March 2022), COVID-19 deaths: Robert Koch Institute (as at 10 March 2022) | ||||||||
| Week 1 | 20,522 | +1,409 | 1,189 | +7 | +6 | +10 | +9 | -17 |
| Week 2 | 19,662 | + 373 | 911 | +2 | +5 | +3 | +1 | -20 |
| Week 3 | 19,597 | + 422 | 829 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +3 | -19 |
| Week 4 | 19,995 | + 657 | 832 | +3 | +4 | +3 | +6 | -12 |
| Week 5 | 20,452 | + 659 | 995 | +3 | +5 | +3 | +3 | -6 |
| Week 6 | 20,183 | + 149 | 1,124 | +1 | 0 | +1 | +6 | -4 |
| Week 7 | 20,854 | + 544 | 1,248 | +3 | -2 | +3 | +6 | +2 |
| Week 8 | 19,997 | + 346 | . | +2 | -13 | -2 | +6 | +6 |
| Week 9 | 20,239 | + 91 | . | 0 | -21 | -3 | +4 | +10 |
Mortality figures in most of the Länder around or below the median value
At the Länder level, mortality figures can currently be shown up to Week 6 of 2022 (7 to 13 February). The largest difference from the median of the previous years in that week was observed in Rheinland-Pfalz (+8% or 77 cases). Death figures exceeded the median by 5% or more also in Bayern, Berlin, Bremen, Hessen and Saarland. In the other Länder, death figures were close to, or below, the median of the four previous years.
A graphical overview of the development of mortality figures in all Länder is available on a special page of the Federal Statistical Office’s website.
High to very high excess mortality in France, Italy, Spain and Israel at the beginning of February
The EuroMOMO network for mortality monitoring compares findings about excess mortality across Europe based on its own extrapolation of incomplete data and using its own excess mortality concept. Early in February, high excess mortality was reported for France, Italy and Spain, while very high excess mortality was observed in Israel. Excess mortality decreased in these countries during the rest of the month.
Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany:
The 2021 and 2022 ad hoc evaluation is based on first provisional data (raw data). These are mere counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out. Due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the routines of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics, these data are still incomplete.
Because of the high relevance of timely mortality figures during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Statistical Office has developed an estimation model for the extrapolation of incomplete data. This model allows nationwide mortality figures to be provided already after roughly one week. The mortality figures of the last nine weeks covered are extrapolated using the figures so far submitted by the registrar’s offices. Therefore the figures can be slightly higher or lower at a later time. The estimate is based on the patterns observed in past reporting delays, some of which differ considerably between regions. Comparable results for the Länder are therefore only available after roughly four weeks. The ad hoc evaluation is updated every week on the Deaths, life expectancy theme page. New results are available every Tuesday.
Periods of excess mortality in the course of a year can be identified on the basis of the provisional death figures. This reveals direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on death figures at an early point in time. For that purpose, we compare the figures with the median of several previous years to account for the varying impact of recurring seasonal effects (for instance due to flu or heat waves). The impact of the rising life expectancy and the increasing proportion of older people on the number of deaths to be expected cannot be considered in this intra-annual comparison.
The median has been used since reference month July 2021 for the comparison with previous years. The advantage of the median compared to the arithmetic mean is that it is less prone to specific one-off developments and outliers, such as very strong flu waves or the COVID-19 waves since the beginning of the pandemic. Using the median allows a more informative evaluation to be made of current death figures. The lowest and highest death figures from the four previous years are not included in the calculation of the median value. It is therefore possible that other comparative values are used for the weekly analysis than for the monthly analysis. In addition, calendar months do not represent the sum of calendar weeks. These are the reasons why the weekly death figures may not sum up to the monthly figures and why they may show different degrees of deviation from the median of the previous years. More information on how the median is calculated and used is contained in press release No 373 of 10 August 2021.
From March 2020, the figures can only be interpreted in the light of the measures taken to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to preventing COVID-19 deaths, these measures and the change of behaviour may have contributed to reducing the number of deaths from other infectious diseases such as flu, which also has an impact on the comparison with previous years. The results of the causes of death statistics for 2020 suggest that this was the case. Decreases or increases in the number of deaths from other causes may also have an effect on total deaths. The mortality figures, however, do not provide information on the incidence of individual causes of death.
To give a final evaluation of the mortality development, the number of deaths is then placed in relation to the actual population in order to consider, for instance, the ageing process of the population. The final results which are required for this, including all deaths reported late, are regularly available in the middle of the subsequent year. Information on the relevant results for 2020 is given in press release No 331 of 9 July 2021.
The provisional mortality figures refer to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. As the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) currently publishes the reported COVID-19 deaths by death date until Week 7 of 2022, these can presently be compared until that week with the provisional total death figures. This does not include cases for which no information or implausible information on the date of death was reported. The results have not been corrected yet for late reporting and are expected to increase due to late reports. More background information on these data can be found on the RKI website.
More information:
The Federal Statistical Office provides more information on the ad hoc evaluation of mortality figures on its Deaths, life expectancy theme page and its Corona statistics webpage.
At a press conference on 9 December 2021, the Federal Statistical Office presented more in-depth analyses of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and results of causes of death statistics and hospital statistics for 2020. The whole statement and a relevant video are available on the overview page on the press conference.
We discuss the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for population projections also in our “StatGespräch“ podcast on age structure. There we shed some light on the role which life expectancy plays for the population development in Germany.
