Press release No. 014 of 11 January 2022
WIESBADEN – According to extrapolated figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), 100,291 people died in Germany in December 2021. This was 22% above the median of the years 2017 to 2020 for that month (+17,821 cases). This is shown by an ad hoc evaluation of provisional death figures.
1.02 million deaths in 2021
According to the first provisional results of the ad hoc evaluation, the number of deaths in 2021 as a whole exceeded the level of one million (1,016,899). After the Second World War, the number of deaths in the territory of today’s Federal Republic of Germany had exceeded one million (roughly 1,001,600) only in 1946. While the difficult living conditions were an explanation of the high mortality figures at that time, the current level of death figures can mainly be explained by the larger population and the higher proportion of older people.
Compared with the first corona year 2020, death figures increased by 3% or 31,327 cases in 2021. The ageing of the population can only explain part of this continued increase. As older people account for a growing proportion of the population, the number of deaths in Germany is currently expected to further increase every year. At the same time, however, life expectancy was on an upward trend before the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. So the effect of increasing life expectancy diminished the ageing effect. As the two effects were occurring at the same time, death figures increased by an annual average of 1% to 2% before the pandemic. The situation changed with the beginning of the pandemic. In 2020, the increase was stronger (+5%) compared with 2019, the last year before the pandemic. Taking 2019 as a basis, the mortality figure could be expected to range between 960,000 and 980,000 in 2021. So the death figures in the first two years of the pandemic were above the levels expected previously.
Development over the year of 2021: mortality figures below the median of the previous years only in February and March – markedly higher figures in January, November and December
In Germany and worldwide, the activity of respiratory diseases other than COVID-19 was reported to be at a very low level at the beginning of 2021. This was particularly evident for the flu. The intensity of flu waves in the past was also reflected in the total death figures and resulted in higher numbers of cases during the winter months. In January 2021 – that is, during the second coronavirus wave – the death figures in the whole of Germany exceeded the median of the preceding four years by 25%. In that month, the number of additional deaths was almost identical with the number of COVID-19 deaths reported to the Robert Koch Institute.
As there was nearly no flu wave in the season of 2020/2021, and despite the new COVID-19 deaths, total death figures in February (-2%) and March (-6%) were below the comparative figures of the previous years. During the third coronavirus wave in April (+4%) and May (+7%), they were above the comparative figures. In June (+8%), the higher death figures coincided with a heat wave and peaked in Week 24 (14 to 20 June) (+17%). In July, mortality figures slightly exceeded the median of the previous years (+2%), in August they were around the median. In September (+10%) and October (+11%), mortality figures were markedly higher than the comparative figures of the previous years. During the current fourth coronavirus wave, death figures for November and December exceeded the comparative figures even more strongly. In November, the number deaths was 21%, and in December 22% above the median of the preceding four years.
| Month | Total 2021 | Difference from median 2017-2020 | COVID-19-Deaths | Relative difference from ... | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| median 2017-2020 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||
| number | % | |||||||
| As at 10 January 2022 | ||||||||
| January | 106,570 | +21,527 | 21,832 | +25 | +11 | +25 | +25 | +25 |
| February | 82,080 | -1,324 | 9,747 | -2 | -9 | -4 | +1 | +3 |
| March | 81,771 | -5,297 | 5,483 | -6 | -1 | -24 | -6 | -6 |
| April | 81,670 | +3,195 | 6,501 | +4 | +12 | +3 | +6 | -3 |
| May | 80,782 | +5,106 | 4,685 | +7 | +7 | +8 | +7 | +7 |
| June | 76,673 | +5,771 | 1,074 | +8 | +10 | +11 | +4 | +6 |
| July | 76,538 | +1,838 | 260 | +2 | +7 | +1 | -1 | +4 |
| August | 76,236 | +329 | 481 | 0 | +7 | -3 | +4 | -3 |
| September | 77,584 | +7,219 | 1,563 | +10 | +12 | +11 | +9 | +5 |
| Oktober | 84,298 | +8,180 | 2,410 | +11 | +12 | +14 | +9 | +6 |
| November | 92,406 | +15,723 | 7,591 | +21 | +23 | +24 | +18 | +7 |
| December | 100,291 | +17,821 | . | +22 | +23 | +24 | +20 | -8 |
| January to December | 1,016,899 | +69,702 | . | +7 | +9 | +6 | +8 | +3 |
COVID-19 deaths reported can only partly explain the high figures in autumn
A comparison of total deaths with the number of COVID-19 deaths reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) is currently possible up to November 2021. In November, death figures were by 21%, or 15,723 cases, above the median of the preceding years. So far, 7,591 COVID-19 deaths with date of death in that month have been reported to the RKI. In September and October, too, the number of reported COVID-19 deaths explained only part of the higher death figures. As regards the additional increase in death figures, several causes are possible. COVID-19 deaths not identified or the displacement of deaths within the year caused by the fact that the usual flu wave did not occur at the beginning of the year may play a role here (mortality displacement). It is also possible that the consequences of postponing operations and preventive examinations become visible here. It is however currently not possible to quantify the contribution of individual effects.
Higher death figures in all Länder in November
At the Länder level, mortality figures can currently not be shown for the entire calendar year. In November 2021, they exceeded the median of the preceding four years in all Länder. The differences were largest in Sachsen (+49% or 2,184 cases), Thüringen (+47% or 1,124 cases) and Bayern (+32% or 3,529 cases). In Sachsen-Anhalt, Brandenburg and Baden-Württemberg, too, the differences amounted to 20% or more. The findings about excess mortality thus were most marked in the Länder in which also the numbers of coronavirus infections had been highest before. Nevertheless, COVID-19 deaths reported to the RKI again can only partly explain the higher death figures. In the city states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen, the differences were smallest – there, the mortality figures exceeded the comparative figures of the preceding years by less than 10%.
A graphical overview of the development of mortality figures in all Länder is available on a special page of the Federal Statistical Office’s website.
Higher mortality figures also in other European countries in December
The EuroMOMO network for mortality monitoring compares findings about excess mortality across Europe based on its own extrapolation of incomplete data and using its own excess mortality concept. In Germany and its neighbouring countries of Denmark, Belgium, France, Switzerland and Austria, moderate to high excess mortality was recorded for the weeks of December. In the Netherlands, excess mortality has been assessed as very high for the first two weeks of December.
Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany:
The 2021 ad hoc evaluation is based on first provisional data (raw data). These are mere counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out. Due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the routines of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics, these data are still incomplete.
Because of the high relevance of timely mortality figures during the coronavirus pandemic, the Federal Statistical Office has developed an estimation model for the extrapolation of incomplete data. This model allows nationwide mortality figures to be provided already after roughly one week. The mortality figures of the last nine weeks are extrapolated using the figures so far submitted by the registrar’s offices. Therefore the figures can be slightly higher or lower at a later time. The estimate is based on the patterns observed in past reporting delays, some of which differ considerably between regions. Comparable results for the Länder are therefore only available after roughly four weeks. The ad hoc evaluation is updated every week on the Deaths, life expectancy theme page. New results are available every Tuesday.
Periods of excess mortality in the course of a year can be identified on the basis of the provisional death figures. This reveals direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on death figures at an early point in time. For that purpose, we compare the figures with the median of several previous years to account for the varying impact of recurring seasonal effects (for instance due to flu or heat waves). The impact of the rising life expectancy and the increasing proportion of older people on the number of deaths to be expected cannot be considered in this intra-annual comparison.
The median has been used since reference month July 2021 for the comparison with previous years. The advantage of the median compared to the arithmetic mean is that it is less prone to specific one-off developments and outliers. Otherwise the second coronavirus wave would lift the average from October 2020 to a level at which the current values would be compared with an “excessive” mortality caused by extraordinary effects rather than a “normal” mortality. Using the median allows a more informative evaluation to be made of the development in the further course of the year. More information on how the median is calculated and used is contained in press release No 373 of 10 August 2021.
From March 2020, the figures can only be interpreted in the light of the measures taken to contain the coronavirus pandemic. In addition to preventing COVID-19 deaths, these measures and the change of behaviour may have contributed to reducing the number of deaths from other infectious diseases such as the flu, which also has an impact on the comparison with previous years. The results of the causes of death statistics for 2020suggest that this was the case. Decreases or increases in the number of deaths from other causes may also have an effect on total deaths. The mortality figures, however, do not provide information on the incidence of individual causes of death.
To give a final evaluation of the mortality development, the number of deaths is then placed in relation to the actual population in order to consider, for instance, the ageing process of the population. The final results which are required for this, including all deaths reported late, are regularly available in the middle of the subsequent year. Information on the relevant results for 2020 is given in press release No 331 of 9 July 2021.
The provisional mortality figures refer to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. As the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has to date published the reported COVID-19 deaths by death date until Week 51 of 2021, these can currently be compared with the provisional total death figures by month up to November. This does not include cases for which no information or implausible information on the date of death was reported. The results have not been corrected yet for late reporting and are expected to increase due to late reports. More background information on these data can be found on the RKI website.
More information:
The Federal Statistical Office provides more information on the ad hoc evaluation of mortality figures on its Deaths, life expectancy theme page and its Corona statistics webpage.
For background information on the calculation of excess mortality, current methods and results please refer to an articlein “WISTA – Wirtschaft und Statistik“ on mortality figures during the coronavirus pandemic.
At a press conference on 9 December 2021, the Federal Statistical Office presented more in-depth analyses of mortality during the coronavirus pandemic and results of causes of death statistics and hospital statistics for 2020. The whole statement and a relevant video are available on the overview page on the press conference.
