Press release No. 546 of 2 December 2021

• Movements down 9% in towns and up 2% in rural districts on 2019
• Larger decrease in mobility in districts with high incidence

WIESBADEN – Fourth coronavirus wave, “2G” regulation and more homeoffice: In November 2021, people in Germany travelled less than before the coronavirus pandemic for the first time since June 2021. All-German mobility was 2% below pre-crisis level (November 2019), after the number of movements in October 2021 was similar to that in reference month October 2019. From July to September 2021, incidence was low and mobility was about 4% above the level of pre-crisis year 2019. This is shown by an ad-hoc evaluation of experimental data carried out by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) to represent mobility changes during the coronavirus pandemic.

Annual development in 2021 shows similar mobility pattern as in 2020, though at a higher level of mobility

A similar pattern had been observed already in 2020. In the summer months of 2020, too, mobility exceeded the pre-crisis values by several percentage points. As of November 2020, it clearly fell below pre-crisis level during the second coronavirus wave and due to measures taken as a consequence,such as the light lockdown. At the time, the decrease in mobility (-8%) on November 2019 was even more marked than this year. Mobility decrease in November 2021 concentrated on towns (-9% on November 2019), as was the case in November 2020, while the value in rural districts was slightly above the reference value (+2% on November 2019). Also, the decrease in mobility across Germany was larger on weekends (-4%) than during the week (-1%).

Larger decrease in mobility in districts with higher incidence

The analysis of mobility change in the first three weeks of November shows that mobility was down especially in districts with a high incidence, although there were no far-reaching mobility restrictions applying in that period. Based on earlier results of analysis, it is assumed that the mobility behaviour of the population changes beyond measures currently applicable, depending on the local incidence level. As mobility also depends on the weather, the values were adjusted for weather effects using the length of sunshine, temperature and amount of rainfall. Towns and rural districts were examined separately due to the systematic differences mentioned before.

In the first three weeks of November 2021, a 3% mobility decrease on 2019 was observed in towns with a 7-day incidence of under 50 new coronavirus infections per 100,000 inhabitants. In towns with incidences between 200 and 400 and over 400, the decrease in mobility was just over three times that value (around 10%). A similar picture is obtained for rural districts. Mobility in districts with an incidence of under 50 was by 10% higher in November 2021 than before the pandemic, while in districts with an incidence of between 200 and 400 and of over 400, it was by just 2% and 3%, respectively, above the reference values of 2019.

This trend in November 2021 seems to correspond to the upward trend of incidences observed for all of Germany. Such a clear correlation between incidence and mobility was not observed in October 2021, when the overall incidence level was much lower. However, the correlation was observed in November 2020, although the mobility level at the time was markedly lower than in November 2021.

Larger decline in mobility after introduction of new coronavirus measures at the end of November

While no far-reaching coronavirus measures were in place in early November, comprehensive measures such as 2G regulations (restricted admission for people who are neither vaccinated nor have recovered from COVID-19) were implemented as of the fourth week of November based on the decision taken by the Federation and the Länder on 18 November. In addition, stricter restrictions were adopted in some Länder, especially for districts with a very high incidence. As a result, the decrease in mobility in the last week of November was up by another percentage point compared with the first three weeks of November, on a federal average. Mobility decrease was largest in Sachsen (9 percentage points), where comprehensive 2G regulations, closure of facilities and curfew for people who are not vaccinated or have not recovered from COVID-19 have applied in hotspot regions since 22 November. In Bayern, too, new measures such as all-Land contact restrictions have been in force since 24 November. In hotspot regions with a 7-day incidence of over 1000, more severe restrictions were introduced on 25 November, including closure of restaurants, recreational and sport facilities and cultural venues. The mobility decreases observed there concentrate on hotspot districts, where mobility change fell by 13 percentage points from +9% to -4% on average from the introduction of the restrictions to 30 November. 

Methodological note:

Using anonymised and aggregated mobile network data, movements are identified from position changes if the duration of stay at the start and destination points is at least 30 minutes each.

Adjustments for public holidays are made when the reference values for 2019 are calculated to avoid distortions due to the usually lower mobility on public holidays. The rates of change for all days that are not public holidays are calculated in comparison with the average for the respective weekday of the respective month of 2019. Public holidays are excluded from this calculation of weekday averages. The rates of change for public holidays are calculated in comparison with the corresponding public holiday in 2019, for instance, the Feast of Corpus Christi.

More information:

The Federal Statistical Office has conducted this ad-hoc evaluation of anonymised and aggregated mobile network data to exploit new digital data sources. During the corona pandemic, mobile network data may provide information on how much the population's mobility behaviour has changed compared with 2019, the year before the crisis. This is based on the assumption that a reduction in mobility entails a decrease in social interaction and, consequently, a lower risk of coronavirus infection. The Federal Statistical Office's aim is to present the most up-to-date information possible on mobility in Germany in order to enable a timely evaluation of the corona pandemic situation.

The results are based on data that are being examined by the Federal Statistical Office in particular for their usefulness in providing up-to-date, small area information on the population and its mobility. Further information on this and analyses regarding the mobility at administrative district level can be found on the "EXDAT – Experimental data" pages (www.destatis.de/exdat) of the Federal Statistical Office's website. The range of data offered is updated every day and gradually expanded.

Both the degree of maturity and the quality of these experimental data differ from those of evaluations of official statistics, especially regarding harmonisation, coverage and methodology.