Press release No. 462 of 30 September 2021
Consumer price index, September 2021:
+4.1% on the same month a year earlier (provisional)
0.0% on the previous month (provisional)
Harmonised index of consumer prices, September 2021:
+4.1% on the same month a year earlier (provisional)
+0.3% on the previous month (provisional)
WIESBADEN – The inflation rate in Germany, measured as the year-on-year change in the consumer price index, is expected to be +4.1% in September 2021. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the consumer prices are expected to remain unchanged from August 2021.
| Overall index / subindex | Weight | June 2021 | July 2021 | August 2021 | September 2021 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| per thousand | percent | ||||
| 1: Provisional figure. 2: Household energy and motor fuels. 3: Net rents and other rents. | |||||
| Overall index | 1,000 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| Goods | 468.16 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.1 |
| including: | |||||
| Energy 2 | 103.83 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 14.3 |
| Food | 84.87 | 1.2 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.9 |
| Services | 531.84 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| including: | |||||
| Rents 3 | 207.26 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
There are a number of reasons for the high inflation rates since July 2021, which include base effects due to low prices in 2020. In this context, especially the temporary value added tax reduction and the sharp decline in mineral oil product prices had an upward effect on the overall inflation rate. Apart from the usual market developments, additional factors were the introduction of CO2 pricing as of January 2021 and crisis-related effects, such as marked price increases at upstream stages in the economic process. So far, only some of these price increases have had a moderate impact on the consumer price index and the inflation rate.
The coronavirus pandemic, the associated restrictions on public life and the resulting consequences required a changed approach to the annual updating of the product weights used in the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP). A methodological paper which discusses this issue is provided on the webpage of the Federal Statistical Office. The updating of the HICP product weights explains a considerable part of the difference between the CPI and the HICP for Germany.
The situation of price collection caused by the corona crisis continued to ease in September 2021. For information on the consequences of the lockdown for price collection please refer to our methodological paper on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on price collection.
For more background information and analyses regarding the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic for price development please refer to our “StatGespräch” podcast on inflation (in German). Here we shed light on the role of base effects and the future of price collection.
The final results for September 2021 will be released on 13 October 2021.
