Press release No. 024 of 18 January 2021

Turnover in accommodation and food services, November 2020 (provisional)
-52.3% real on the previous month (calendar and seasonally adjusted)
-52.2% nominal on the previous month (calendar and seasonally adjusted)
-67.9% real on the same month a year earlier
-66.4% nominal on the same month a year earlier

Annual result 2020 (estimates)
-38% in 2020 compared to the previous year (real, provisional)
-36% in 2020 compared to the previous year (nominal, provisional)

WIESBADEN – According to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), turnover in the accommodation and food services 2020 in Germany is expected to be about 38% in real terms lower than in 2019. In nominal terms turnover growth is expected to be about 36% lower than in 2019. This estimation takes into account the lockdown in Germany in December 2020, turnover in accommodation and food services from January until November 2020, and the need for revision of current results.

In November 2020, turnover in the accommodation and food services was 52.3% smaller in real terms (price-adjusted) and 52,2% smaller in nominal terms (not price-adjusted) than in October 2020. Turnover in real terms (after calendar and seasonal adjustment) was still 67.4% lower than in February 2020, the month before the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in Germany. Therefore, German accommodation and food services did not continue to recover in November 2020.

The impact of the crisis is also visible in a year-on-year comparison. The turnover of November 2020 in the accommodation and food services fell by 67.9% in real terms and 66.4% in nominal terms compared to November 2019. The turnover reported by the hotels and other accommodation establishments was 82.2% lower in real terms than in November 2019. In the food and beverage services, turnover decreased by 60.1% in real terms from November 2019. Within food and beverage service activities, the real turnover of caterers was 45.1% lower in November 2020 than in the same month of the previous year.

Methodological notes:
Estimation of the annual results
The 2020 nominal and real annual turnovers for the accommodation and food service sector are characterised by numerous special developments due to the Corona pandemic. Therefore, the estimates are influenced by greater uncertainties. The estimations take the likely need for revision for the reference months from March to December 2020 for the upper-cut-off point and change rates into account. For the expected turnover losses in nominal as well as real terms in December, the nominal and real change rate in April 2020 to April 2019 was applied as lower cut-off-point and the nominal as well as real change rate from November 2020 to November 2019 was applied as upper cut-off-point.

Economic indicators and reference periods
In all reports on economic indicators the different comparison periods must be considered. The focus of economic monitoring is usually a comparison with the previous month/previous quarter. This provides an indication of the short-term trend in economic developments. A comparison of the previous month/previous quarter can only be meaningfully interpreted using calendar and seasonally adjusted data. The comparison with the previous year serves to provide a longer-term comparison of levels and it is independent of seasonal fluctuations. In the current COVID-19 crisis, the sharp downturn, especially in March/April 2020, and the gradual recovery since then may lead to very different results in the comparison of the previous month/previous quarter and the previous year. Both approaches are important: What is the economic trend compared to the previous month/previous quarter and how far has the catching-up process progressed compared to the previous year? In order to additionally enable an immediate comparison with the pre-crisis level, all press releases on economic indicators that are available on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis include a comparison with February 2020 or the 4th quarter of 2019.

The survey covers enterprises in the accommodation and food services with a turnover of at least 150 000 Euro per year. Destatis takes into account late notifications from the enterprises surveyed and therefore continuously updates the first proven results.

The revision tables provide information on the impact of the updates on the results.

The results of accommodation and food services statistics may differ from those of tourism statistics, especially in the summer months, because turnover in accommodation establishments does not always match the date of overnight stays. Methodological differences may also lead to different results.