Press release No. 023 of 15 January 2021
WIESBADEN – According to provisional results, at least 23,550 people died in Germany in Week 51 (14 to 20 December 2020). The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the death figures of that period are by roughly 24%, or 4,568 cases, higher than the average of the years 2016 to 2019. According to most recent information, death figures in the previous week were 25% above the average of the preceding year. This is shown by an ad-hoc evaluation of provisional mortality figures, which presently extends to Week 51.
711 more COVID-19 deaths than in the previous week
Since October, the number of people who died and who had had laboratory confirmed COVID-19 disease has been rising from week to week. In Week 51, a total of 4,484 COVID-19 deaths were reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). This was an increase of 771 cases compared with the preceding week.
Mortality figures in the Land of Sachsen more than doubled compared to the average of the previous years
The development of mortality figures continues to be especially striking in Sachsen. Since October, the difference between the current figures and the average of the four preceding years has increased significantly there from week to week. In Week 41 (5 to 11 October 2020), the number of deaths was still below average. In Week 51, the figure more than doubled (+109% or 1,226 cases) compared to the average of that week of the previous four years. In Brandenburg (+41% or 267 cases), Hessen (+32% or 428 cases) and Thüringen (+36% or 215 cases) , too, the number of deaths was at least 30% above the 2016-2019 average.
| Week | Total number 2020 | Difference from Ø 2016-2019 average | COVID-19 deaths | Relative difference between total in 2020 and ... | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ø 2016-2019 average | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | ||||
| number | percent | |||||||
| Sources: total death figures: Federal Statistical Office (as at 15 January 2021, COVID-19 deaths: Robert Koch Institute (as at 14 January 2021) | ||||||||
| Weeks 1-39 | 708,574 | +9,486 | 9,489 | +1 | +6 | +1 | -2 | +1 |
| Week 40 | 17,547 | +913 | 79 | +5 | +7 | +5 | +6 | +4 |
| Week 41 | 17,404 | +15 | 118 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | -1 |
| Week 42 | 17,651 | +400 | 233 | +2 | 0 | +3 | +7 | 0 |
| Week 43 | 18,484 | +1,339 | 392 | +8 | +5 | +8 | +11 | +7 |
| Week 44 | 18,449 | +1,268 | 762 | +7 | +5 | +10 | +9 | +5 |
| Week 45 | 18,909 | +1,255 | 1,182 | +7 | +6 | +9 | +7 | +6 |
| Week 46 | 19,546 | +1,729 | 1,569 | +10 | +5 | +11 | +16 | +7 |
| Week 47 | 19,960 | +1,983 | 2,002 | +11 | +11 | +13 | +12 | +8 |
| Week 48 | 20,978 | +2,804 | 2,700 | +15 | +16 | +17 | +16 | +13 |
| Week 49 | 22,180 | +3,537 | 3,115 | +19 | +18 | +21 | +21 | +16 |
| Week 50 | 23,294 | +4,686 | 3,773 | +25 | +23 | +26 | +30 | +22 |
| Week 51 | 23,550 | +4,568 | 4,484 | +24 | +22 | +27 | +24 | +24 |
| Weeks 1-51 | 946,526 | +33,983 | 29,898 | +4 | +7 | +4 | +1 | +3 |
Clear findings about excess mortality in other European countries
The EuroMOMO network for mortality monitoring currently reports extraordinarily high excess mortality for Switzerland and Slovenia for Week 51. High excess mortality is reported for Italy, the Netherlands, Austria and Portugal. For other European countries, EuroMOMO recorded no more than moderate excess mortality in that week.
Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany:
Based on the ad-hoc evaluation "Sterbefälle – Fallzahlen nach Tagen, Wochen, Monaten, Altersgruppen, Geschlecht und Bundesländern für Deutschland 2016 bis 2020" (Deaths – Number of cases by day, week, month, age group and Land for Germany, 2016 to 2020), users can carry out their own evaluations of how death figures developed over the year. First provisional data are provided for 2020. The provisional data are mere counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out.
Due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the behaviour of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics, up-to-date information on the number of deaths can be provided with a delay of about four weeks. The results available for 2020 will increase slightly on account of late reporting.
Apart from the direct and indirect consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, shifts in the age structure of the population can contribute to above-average death figures. In addition, measures taken to contain the pandemic may contribute to fewer deaths from other infectious diseases, such as influenza, which will also have an impact on the difference from the average. The mortality figures, however, do not provide information on the incidence of individual causes of death.
Phases of excess mortality can be identified based on the provisional mortality figures. To give a final evaluation of the annual mortality development, the number of deaths is placed, among other things, in relation to the population in order to consider, for instance, the ageing process of the population in an adequate manner. The final results required for this will be available in mid-2021.
The provisional mortality figures refer to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. As the reported COVID-19 deaths are also published by day of death by the RKI, the figures can be compared over time with the provisional total death figures.
More information:
For more information on the ad-hoc evaluation of day-to-day mortality figures please refer to the theme page "Deaths, life expectancy", the podcast "Sterbefallzahlen und Übersterblichkeit während der Corona-Pandemie” and the "Corona statistics" webpage of the Federal Statistical Office.
