Press release No. 002 of 5 January 2021
Retail turnover, November 2020 (provisional)
+1.9% on the previous month (in real terms, calendar and seasonally adjusted)
+1.7% on the previous month (in nominal terms, calendar and seasonally adjusted)
+5.6% on the same month a year earlier (in real terms)
+6.5% on the same month a year earlier (in nominal terms)
Annual result 2020 (estimates)
+4.1% in 2020 compared to the previous year (real, provisional)
+5.3% in 2020 compared to the previous year (nominal, provisional)
WIESBADEN – According to estimates of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), retail turnover 2020 in Germany is expected to be between 3.9% and 4.3% in real terms higher than in 2019. In nominal terms turnover growth is expected between 5.1% and 5.5%. This estimation takes into account the lockdown in Germany starting in the second half of December 2020 as well as retail turnover from January until November 2020. In November 2020, turnover in retail trade was provisionally in real terms 1.9% and 1.7% in nominal terms higher than in October 2020.
In November 2020, the turnover in retail rose by 5.6% (real) and 6.5% (nominal) compared to the same month of the previous year. In comparison to February 2020, the month before the outbreak of Covid 19 in Germany, the turnover in November 2020 was 8.4% (in real terms, calendar and seasonally adjusted) higher.
Retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco were in real terms 0.8% and 3.4% in nominal terms higher in November 2020 than in November 2019. Turnover in retail sale in supermarkets, self-service department shops and hypermarkets was in real terms 1.3% and in nominal terms 3.9% higher than in the same month last year. In addition, the specialist retail sale of food (i.e. specialist retailer for fruit and vegetables, meat, baked goods, and beverages) generated in real terms 3.1% less turnover. In nominal terms, the turnover was similar to the results of November 2019.
In the non-food retail sector, sales in November 2020 rose in real terms by 8.5% and in nominal terms by 8.8% compared with the same month of the previous year. The largest increase in turnover compared with the previous year's month in real terms by 31.8% and 33.1% in nominal terms was achieved by the internet and mail order business. Trade in furniture, household appliances and building materials also increased, with a real plus of 15.4%. Trade in textiles, clothing, shoes and leather goods as well as the retail trade in various types of goods (e.g. department stores) did not return to the previous year's level, with real growth of -20.0% respectively -6.1% compared with November 2019.
Methodological notes
Estimation of the annual results
The 2020 nominal and real annual sales for the retail sector are characterised by numerous special developments due to the Corona pandemic. Therefore, this year’s estimates are influenced by greater uncertainties in comparison to the estimations for the previous years. The estimations take the likely need for revision for the reference months from August to December 2020 into account, as well as the growth and loss in the individual retail sectors starting in April 2020. Retail turnover for December 2020 was estimated by a forward projection of sales development starting in May 2020 and it was evaluated by an artificial neural network and an ARIMA-model. Then, the first turnover estimate was reduced by the turnover losses of retail trade in sales premises and the non-food retail sector (petrol stations and pharmacies are excluded) based on the lockdown in Germany, which started on 16/12/2020. The expected sales losses for these sectors were estimated using key data from the April 2020 lockdown and the presumed purchasing behaviour of the consumers in December, and half of these were taken into account in the estimates for December (12 out of 25 sales days). Furthermore, the sales cap for December took into account compensatory purchases by 50% of the average monthly sales increases of the Internet and mail order retail trade in the period May to November 2020, whereas the sales floor for the retail trade in December 2020 did not.
Economic indicators and reference periods
In all reports on economic indicators, the different comparison periods must be considered. The focus of economic monitoring is usually a comparison with the previous month/previous quarter. This provides an indication of the short-term trend in economic developments. A comparison of the previous month/previous quarter can only be meaningfully interpreted using calendar and seasonally adjusted data. The comparison with the previous year serves to provide a longer-term comparison of levels and it is independent of seasonal fluctuations. In the current COVID-19 crisis, the sharp downturn, especially in March/April 2020, and the gradual recovery since then may lead to very different results in the comparison of the previous month/previous quarter and the previous year. Both approaches are important: What is the economic trend compared to the previous month/previous quarter and how far has the catching-up process progressed compared to the previous year? In order to additionally enable an immediate comparison with the pre-crisis level, all press releases on economic indicators that are available on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis include a comparison with February 2020 or the 4th quarter of 2019.
Further information
The revision tables provide information about the impact of the updates on the results.
Crisis Monitor enables comparison between corona crisis and financial and economic crisis
Retail turnover also forms part of the “Crises monitor“ (www.destatis.de/krisenmonitor), by means of which the Federal Statistical Office compares the development of major short-term indicators in the corona crisis and the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009. The Crises monitor complements the "Corona statistics" webpage, which has provided statistical information on the economic and social consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.
