Press release No. 536 of 30 December 2020
WIESBADEN – According to provisional results, at least 84,480 people died in Germany in November 2020. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that this was 11%, or 8,186 people, above the average for November over the years from 2016 to 2019. This is shown by an ad-hoc evaluation of provisional mortality figures, which presently extends to the end of November. The last time that more than 80,000 deaths were recorded in November was in 1974, when the figure stood at 81,006 deaths.
Difference from average increased during November
The difference of the mortality figures from the average of the previous years increased in each week of November. Altogether, 20,699 deaths have so far been reported for the last week of November (Week 48 from 23 to 29 November) – this is 14% (2,525 cases) more than the average of the years 2016 to 2019.
The number of people who died and who had had laboratory confirmed COVID-19 disease simultaneously rose from week to week. In Week 48, a total of 2,579 COVID-19 deaths were reported to the Robert Koch Institute. This was an increase of 639 compared with the preceding week.
Deaths rise above all in the age group of those aged 80 or over
The above-average mortality figures for November 2020 are almost entirely due to an increase in deaths in the age group of people aged 80 or over (8,192 cases or 19% more than the average of the years 2016 to 2019). In contrast, the mortality figures for people under 80 are on the level of previous years. According to RKI figures, COVID-19 deaths occur much more often among people aged 80 or over.
Looking over the longer term, the age structure of the population has changed in the past years. From 2015 to 2019, the number of those aged 80 or over rose from 4.7 million to 5.7 million. Apart from the direct and indirect consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, such shifts in the age structure of the population can contribute to above-average death figures. In addition, measures taken to contain the pandemic may contribute to fewer deaths from other infectious diseases, such as influenza, which will also have an impact on the difference from the average. The mortality figures, however, do not provide information on the incidence of individual causes of death.
| Total 2020 | Difference from 2016-2019 average | COVID-19 deaths | Relative difference between totals in 2020 and ... | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-2019 average | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | ||||
| number | percent | |||||||
| Sources: total death figures: Federal Statistical Office (as at 30 December 2020, COVID-19 deaths: Robert Koch Institute (as at 24 December 2020) | ||||||||
| January | 85,376 | -1,587 | -2 | +4 | -11 | 0 | 0 | |
| February | 80,003 | -3,516 | -4 | +4 | -12 | -7 | -1 | |
| March | 87,432 | -2,679 | 1,119 | -3 | +4 | +5 | -18 | +1 |
| April | 83,825 | +7,458 | 6,048 | +10 | +11 | +15 | +5 | +8 |
| May | 75,742 | +611 | 1,565 | +1 | +2 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| June | 72,107 | +1,697 | 302 | +2 | +4 | +4 | +4 | -2 |
| July | 73,711 | -305 | 132 | 0 | +2 | +3 | -3 | -4 |
| August | 78,569 | +4,920 | 147 | +7 | +10 | +10 | 0 | +7 |
| September | 73,888 | +4,099 | 202 | +6 | +7 | +6 | +6 | +4 |
| October | 79,207 | +3,638 | 1,407 | +5 | +4 | +5 | +7 | +3 |
| November | 84,480 | +8,186 | 7,335 | +11 | +10 | +13 | +13 | +8 |
| January - November | 874,340 | +22,520 | 18,257 | +3 | +6 | +3 | 0 | +2 |
Mortality figures in Sachsen 39% above average in November
The development of mortality figures is especially striking in the Land of Sachsen. There, the difference from the average of the four preceding years increased from week to week in November and, in the whole month, was 39%, or 1,708 cases, above that average. Compared with the previous years' average, 55% more, or 586 more cases, have so far been reported in Sachsen for the last week of November (Week 48). In the other Länder, the number of deaths in November was no more than 14% above the average of the previous years (+354 cases in Brandenburg).
Clear findings about excess mortality in other European countries
The EuroMOMO network for mortality monitoring currently reports extremely high excess mortality for Switzerland and Slovenia for the last week of November (Week 48). Very high excess or high excess mortality is reported for Belgium, Greece, Italy and Austria. For other European countries, EuroMOMO records no more than moderate excess mortality in that week.
Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany:
Based on the ad-hoc evaluation "Sterbefälle – Fallzahlen nach Tagen, Wochen, Monaten, Altersgruppen, Geschlecht und Bundesländern für Deutschland 2016 bis 2020" (Deaths – Number of cases by day, week, month, age group, sex and Land for Germany, 2016 to 2020), users can carry out their own evaluations of how death figures developed over the year. First provisional data are provided for 2020. The provisional data are mere counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out.
Due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the behaviour of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics, up-to-date information on the number of deaths can be provided with a delay of about four weeks. The results available for 2020 will increase slightly on account of late reporting.
Phases of excess mortality can be identified based on the provisional mortality figures. To give a final evaluation of the annual mortality development, the number of deaths is placed, among others, in relation to the population in order to consider, for instance, the ageing process of the population in an adequate manner. The final results required for this will not be available until the middle of 2021.
The provisional mortality figures refer to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. As the reported COVID-19 deaths are also published by day of death by the RKI, the figures can be compared over time with the provisional total death figures.
More information:
For more information on the ad-hoc evaluation of day-to-day mortality figures please refer to the theme page "Deaths, life expectancy", the podcast "Sterbefallzahlen und Übersterblichkeit während der Corona-Pandemie” and the "Corona statistics" webpage of the Federal Statistical Office.
