Press release No. 523 of 18 December 2020
WIESBADEN – According to provisional results, at least 19,600 people died in Germany in Week 47 (16 to 22 November 2020). The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the death figures of that period are by roughly 9% higher than the average of the years 2016 to 2019. This is shown by an ad-hoc evaluation of provisional mortality figures, which presently extends to Week 47.
Number of COVID-19 deaths is increasing markedly
The number of people who died and who had had laboratory confirmed COVID-19 disease is rising from week to week. In Week 47, a total of 1,887 COVID-19 deaths were reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). That was 390 cases more than in the preceding week and 1,808 cases more than in Week 40.
Mortality figures in Sachsen 46% across average
The development of mortality figures is especially striking in the Land of Sachsen. The difference between the current figures and the average of the four preceding years is increasing significantly there from week to week. While deaths were still below average in Week 41, the number of cases was by 46% or 476 above average in Week 47 for which figures are now available. In the Länder of Baden-Württemberg (+12% or 260 cases), Brandenburg (+12% or 69 cases), Nordrhein-Westfalen (+10% or 380 cases) and Thüringen (+12% or 65 cases), the difference from the average also rose without exception in the weeks of November and most recently was at least 10% above average.
| Week | Total 2020 | Difference from 2016-2019 average | COVID-19 deaths | Relative difference between totals in 2020 and ... | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-2019 average | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | ||||
| number | percent | |||||||
| Sources: total death figures: Federal Statistical Office (as at 18 December 2020, COVID-19 deaths: Robert Koch Institute (as at 17 December 2020) | ||||||||
| Weeks 1-39 | 708,292 | +9,204 | 9,468 | +1 | +6 | +1 | -2 | +1 |
| Week 40 | 17,522 | +888 | 79 | +5 | +7 | +5 | +5 | +4 |
| Week 41 | 17,373 | -16 | 116 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +2 | -2 |
| Week 42 | 17,607 | +356 | 230 | +2 | 0 | +3 | +6 | -1 |
| Week 43 | 18,422 | +1,277 | 387 | +7 | +5 | +8 | +11 | +6 |
| Week 44 | 18,362 | +1,181 | 746 | +7 | +4 | +10 | +9 | +5 |
| Week 45 | 18,774 | +1,120 | 1,134 | +6 | +6 | +8 | +7 | +5 |
| Week 46 | 19,357 | +1,540 | 1,497 | +9 | +4 | +10 | +15 | +6 |
| Week 47 | 19,600 | +1,623 | 1,887 | +9 | +9 | +11 | +10 | +6 |
| Weeks 1-47 | 855,309 | +17,173 | 15,544 | +2 | +5 | +2 | -1 | +1 |
Clear findings about excess mortality in other European countries
The EuroMOMO network for mortality monitoring currently reports extremely high excess mortality for Switzerland and Slovenia for Week 47. Very high excess or high excess mortality is reported for Belgium, France, Italy, Austria and Spain. For other European countries, EuroMOMO recorded no more than moderate excess mortality in that week.
Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany:
It is not yet possible to assess what impact the development of death figures to date will have on the entire year of 2020. The development in all of 2020 will have to be considered for a final assessment of temporary excess mortality. In addition, the number of deaths has to be placed in relation to the population to consider, for instance, the ageing process of the population in an adequate manner.
Based on the ad-hoc evaluation "Sterbefälle – Fallzahlen nach Tagen, Wochen, Monaten, Altersgruppen, Geschlecht und Bundesländern für Deutschland 2016 bis 2020" (Deaths – Number of cases by day, week, month, age group, sex and Land for Germany, 2016 to 2020), users can carry out their own evaluations of how death figures developed over the year. First provisional data are provided for 2020. The provisional data are mere counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out.
Due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the behaviour of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics, up-to-date information on the number of deaths can be provided with a delay of about four weeks. The results available for 2020 will increase slightly on account of late reporting.
The provisional mortality figures refer to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. As the reported COVID-19 deaths are also published by day of death by the RKI, the figures can be compared over time with the provisional total death figures.
More information:
For more information on the ad-hoc evaluation of day-to-day mortality figures please refer to the theme page "Deaths, life expectancy", the podcast "Sterbefallzahlen und Übersterblichkeit während der Corona-Pandemie” and the "Corona statistics" webpage of the Federal Statistical Office.
The next ad-hoc evaluation containing the data for the reference month of November will be published on 30 December 2020.
