Press release No. 399 of 9 October 2020
WIESBADEN – According to provisional results, at least 77,886 people died in Germany in August 2020. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that this was 6%, or 4,237 cases, more than the average across the years 2016 to 2019.
Higher mortality figures during the heat wave
The higher death figures in August coincide with the heat wave in that month. According to Deutscher Wetterdienst, August 2020 was extremely warm. Especially in Week 33 (10 to 16 August), the number of deaths (19,499 cases) was markedly higher (+20%, or +3,192 cases) than the average across the preceding four years. In 2018 and 2019, marked effects of the heat waves were observed somewhat earlier in the course of the year than this year. In 2016 and 2017, there was no such clear peak in mortality figures during the summer months as in the years 2018 to 2020.
Increase in August 2020 does not appear to be caused by COVID-19 deaths
The data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) cannot explain the above-average mortality figures in August. According to RKI information, 135 people with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 disease died in August. In April 2020, when total death figures were 10% (+7,342 cases) above the average across the previous years, there were 6,034 COVID-19 deaths, so that a connection appeared likely. The total death figures of the months May to July were close to the average across the previous years.
| Total number | Diferencezum | COVID-19 | Relative difference from … | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Ø 2016-2019 | Deaths | Ø 2016-2019 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Sources: total death figures: Federal Statistical Office, COVID-19 deaths: Robert Koch Institute (as at 8 October) | ||||||||
| January | 85,306 | -1,657 | - | -2% | +4% | -11% | 0% | 0% |
| February | 79,883 | -3,636 | - | -4% | +4% | -12% | -7% | -1% |
| March | 87,337 | -2,774 | 1,118 | -3% | +4% | +5% | -18% | +1% |
| April | 83,709 | +7,342 | 6,034 | +10% | +11% | +14% | +5% | +8% |
| May | 75,621 | +490 | 1,549 | +1% | +1% | 0% | +1% | 0% |
| June | 71,913 | +1,503 | 298 | +2% | +4% | +3% | +4% | -2% |
| July | 73,416 | -600 | 125 | -1% | +2% | +3% | -3% | -5% |
| August | 77,886 | +4,237 | 135 | +6% | +9% | +9% | -1% | +6% |
| January to August | 635,071 | +4,904 | 9,259 | +1% | +5% | +1% | -3% | +1% |
Methodological notes
It is not yet possible to assess what impact the development up to now will have on the entire year of 2020. The development in all of 2020 will have to be considered for a final assessment of temporary excess mortality. In addition, the number of deaths has to be placed in relation to the population to consider, for instance, the ageing process of the population in an adequate manner.
Based on the ad-hoc evaluation "Sterbefälle – Fallzahlen nach Tagen, Wochen, Monaten, Altersgruppen und Bundesländern für Deutschland 2016 bis 2020" (Deaths – Number of cases by day, week, month, age group and Land for Germany, 2016 to 2020), users can carry out their own evaluations of how death figures developed over the year. First provisional data are provided for 2020. The provisional data are mere counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out.
Due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the reporting behaviour between registrar’s offices and official statistics, up-to-date information on the number of deaths can be provided with a delay of about four weeks. The results available for 2020 will increase slightly on account of late reporting.
The provisional mortality figures refer to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. As the reported COVID-19 deaths are also published by day of death by the RKI, the figures can be compared over time with the provisional total death figures.
For more information on the ad-hoc evaluation of day-to-day mortality figures please refer to the theme page "Deaths, life expectancy" and the "Corona statistics" webpage of the Federal Statistical Office.
