Press release No. 194 of 29 May 2020
WIESBADEN – According to provisional results, at least 82,246 people died in Germany in April 2020. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that this was 8% (+5,942 cases) more than the average across the previous four years. The last time that more than 80,000 deaths in Germany were recorded in April was in 1977.
In Week 18 (27 April to 3 May 2020), that is the week for which the most recent mortality figures are available, at least 17,312 people died in Germany. Mortality figures were thus down by 799 cases from the previous week (20 to 26 April); they were roughly 2% above the average across 2016 to 2019. When that week is compared with the same week of each individual year, it turns out that the number of deaths was within a range of 3% above the figure recorded for 2018 and 1% above the figure for 2017. Increased mortality figures have been observed since Week 13 (23 to 29 March). The deviation was largest in Week 15 (6 to 12 April) with 2,316 or 13% more deaths compared with the four-year average.
The total number of deaths from Week 13 to Week 18 was by 7,486 cases higher than the average across the previous four years. In regional terms, this development is mainly due to three Länder. Mortality figures in Bayern were by 2,719 deaths (+18%) above the average of the previous four years, in Baden-Württemberg by 1,958 (+16%) and in Nordrhein-Westfalen by 1,254 (+5%).
| Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18 | Week 13-18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data source of COVID-19 deaths: Robert Koch Institute (as at: 27 May 2020) | |||||||
| 2020 | 19,527 | 20,412 | 20,209 | 18,952 | 18,111 | 17,312 | 114,523 |
| Absolute difference from .. | |||||||
| 2016-2019 average | +588 | +1,932 | +2,316 | +1,595 | +704 | +351 | +7,486 |
| COVID-19 deaths | 597 | 1,342 | 1,708 | 1,553 | 1,131 | 752 | 7,083 |
| Relative difference from ... | |||||||
| 2016-2019 average | +3% | +10% | +13% | +9% | +4% | +2% | +7% |
| 2016 | +5% | +12% | +14% | +13% | +6% | +2% | +9% |
| 2017 | +10% | +20% | +20% | +14% | +3% | +1% | +11% |
| 2018 | -7% | +2% | +5% | +5% | +6% | +3% | +2% |
| 2019 | +6% | +10% | +14% | +5% | +1% | +2% | +6% |
Connection with corona pandemic seems likely
These findings about excess mortality, as it is called, correspond with the data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) when the absolute figures are considered. According to RKI information, a total 7,083 people with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 disease died in Weeks 13 to 18. The development over time was roughly parallel, too. Both the deviation of totals from the average and the number of COVID-19 deaths were highest in Week 15. However, this does not mean that all additional deaths counted in death statistics were people who died from COVID-19. Decreases or increases in other causes of death may also have an effect on the total number of deaths. This year’s influenza epidemic, which is a possible influencing factor, is deemed to be over since mid-March. Usually, waves of influenza have an impact on mortality figures until mid-April.
Excess mortality comparatively low in Germany
Excess mortality in Germany is low compared with other European countries. The statistical institute of France, for instance, reports that mortality was up 27% in the period from 1 March to 20 April on a year earlier. The national statistical institute of Italy (Istat) reports that there were even 49% more deaths in March 2020 than in the years 2015 to 2019, on average. The national statistical institutes of Belgium, Great Britain, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland and Spain also record higher mortality figures. In many countries, the peak has been passed, and the extent of excess mortality is decreasing, as in Germany. No unusual changes on the preceding years have been observed in Norway and in the Czech Republic.
The figures provided by these countries are based on national methods and individual time periods. Some data refer to the reporting date, not the actual death date. The proportions of missing data reports differ, too, and depend strongly on how recent the missing data are.
Methodological notes on the data for Germany:
According to the definition used here, excess mortality means that more people die at a specific time in the course of a year than would have been expected to die in view of the case numbers of previous years (here: the 2016 to 2019 average).
On the basis of the data available so far it is not possible to assess what impact the current development will have on the entire year of 2020. The development in all of 2020 will have to be considered for a final assessment of excess mortality. In addition, the number of deaths has to be placed in relation to the population to consider, for instance, the ageing process of the population in an adequate manner.
Based on the ad-hoc evaluation "Sterbefälle – Fallzahlen nach Tagen, Wochen, Monaten, Altersgruppen und Bundesländern für Deutschland 2016 bis 2020", users can carry out their own evaluations of how death figures developed over the year. First provisional data are provided for 2019 and 2020. Accordingly, the average of the years 2016 to 2019 contains both final and provisional data. The provisional data are mere counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out.
Due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the reporting behaviour between registrar’s offices and official statistics, up-to-date information on the number of deaths can be provided with a delay of about four weeks. The results available for 2020 will increase slightly on account of late reporting.
The provisional mortality figures refer to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. As the reported COVID-19 deaths are published by day of death in the situation report of the RKI, too, the figures can be compared over time with the provisional total death figures. In this count, the RKI includes only cases where age, sex and date of death are known.
For more information on the ad-hoc evaluation of day-to-day mortality figures please refer to the theme page "Deaths, life expectancy" and the "Corona statistics" webpage of the Federal Statistical Office.
