Press release No. 177 of 15 May 2020
WIESBADEN – According to provisional results, at least 18,693 people died in Germany in Week 16 (13 to 19 April 2020). The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that mortality figures have fallen by 1,343 cases compared to the previous week (6 to 12 April), but were still roughly 8% higher than the average of the years 2016 to 2019. When that week is compared with the same week of each individual year, the number of deaths was within a range of 12% above the figure recorded for 2017 and 4% above the figures for 2018 and 2019 respectively. Higher mortality rates have been observed since Week 13 (23 to 29 March). The deviation was largest in Week 15 with almost 2,150 or 12% more deaths compared with the four-year average.
| Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15 | Week 16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 19,440 | 20,295 | 20,036 | 18,693 |
| Absolute difference from .. | ||||
| 2016-2019 average | +501 | +1,815 | +2,143 | +1, 336 |
| Relative difference from ... | ||||
| 2016-2019 average | +3 % | +10 % | +12 % | +8 % |
| 2016 | +4 % | +11 % | +13 % | +11 % |
| 2017 | +10 % | +19 % | +19 % | +12 % |
| 2018 | -7 % | +1 % | +5 % | +4 % |
| 2019 | +5 % | +9 % | +13 % | +4 % |
The current development is striking because death figures tend to decline continuously from week to week at the end of March and the beginning of April as the influenza epidemic recedes. The fact that the influenza epidemic of 2020 is deemed to be over since mid-March suggests that there is a connection between the slight excess mortality currently observed and the corona pandemic.
According to the definition used here, excess mortality means that more people die at a specific point in time in the course of a year than would have been expected to die in view of the case number of previous years (here: the 2016 to 2019 average).
Excess mortality comparatively low in Germany
Excess mortality in Germany is low compared with other European countries. The national statistical institute of Italy (Istat), for example, reports that there were 49% more deaths in March 2020 than in the years 2015 to 2019, on average. The national statistical institute of Sweden (SCB) even reports twice as many deaths in the agglomeration area of Stockholm for Weeks 14 to 16 as, on average, in the five years before. Higher death figures are reported also by Belgium, France, Great Britain, the Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland and Spain. In contrast, no marked changes are observed for Norway and the Czech Republic. The figures provided by each country are based on national methods and individual time periods. Some data refer to the reporting date, not the actual death date. The proportion of missing data also differs among countries.
Methodological notes on the data for Germany:
On the basis of the data available so far it is not possible to assess what impact the current development will have on the entire year of 2020. The development in all of 2020 will have to be considered for a final assessment of excess mortality. In addition, the number of deaths has to be placed in relation to the population to consider, for instance, the ageing process of the population in an adequate manner.
Based on the ad-hoc evaluation "Sterbefälle – Fallzahlen nach Tagen, Wochen, Monaten, Altersgruppen und Bundesländern für Deutschland 2016 bis 2020" (Deaths – Number of cases by day, week, month, age group and Land for Germany, 2016 to 2020), users can carry out their own evaluations of how death figures developed over the year. First provisional data are provided for 2019 and 2020. Accordingly, the average of the years 2016 to 2019 contains both final and provisional data. The provisional data are mere counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out. The death data refer to the death date, not the date on which a death was registered.
Due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the reporting behaviour between registrar’s offices and official statistics, up-to-date information on the number of deaths can be provided with a delay of about four weeks. The results available for 2020 will increase slightly on account of late reporting.
For more information on the ad-hoc evaluation of day-to-day mortality figures please refer to the theme page “Deaths, life expectancy“ and the “Corona statistics“ webpage of the Federal Statistical Office.
