Press release No. 050 of 14 February 2019
Gross domestic product, 4th quarter of 2018
0.0% on the previous quarter (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
+0.9% on the same quarter a year earlier (price adjusted)
+0.6% on the same quarter a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)
WIESBADEN – In the fourth quarter of 2018, the gross domestic product (GDP) remained nearly at the previous quarter's level after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. Hence short-term economic development in Germany showed two trends in 2018. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that, after a dynamic start into the first half of the year (+0.4% in the first quarter, +0.5% in the second quarter), a small dip (-0.2% in the third quarter, 0.0% in the fourth quarter) was recorded in the second half of the year. For the whole year of 2018, this was an increase of 1.4% (calendar adjusted: 1.5%). Hence growth was slightly smaller than reported in January.
The quarter-on-quarter comparison (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted) reveals that positive contributions mainly came from domestic demand. Gross fixed capital formation, especially in construction but also in machinery and equipment, increased markedly compared with the third quarter of 2018. While household final consumption expenditure increased slightly, general government final consumption expenditure was markedly up at the end of the year. However, development of foreign trade did not make a positive contribution to growth in the fourth quarter. According to provisional calculations, exports and imports of goods and services increased nearly at the same rate in the quarter-on-quarter comparison.
Measured by unadjusted figures, economic growth slowed down year on year. The price adjusted GDP rose by 0.9% (calendar adjusted: 0.6%) in the fourth quarter of 2018, following increases of 1.1% (also calendar adjusted) in the third quarter of 2018, 2.3% (calendar adjusted: 2.0%) in the second quarter of 2018 and 1.4% in the first quarter of 2018 (calendar adjusted: 2.1%).
According to the current state of calculation, there was no measurable statistical carry-over effect at the end of 2018. The statistical carry-over effect is the rate of GDP change which would be obtained for 2019 if the seasonally and calendar adjusted GDP in all quarters of 2019 just remained unchanged compared with the fourth quarter of 2018.
The economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2018 was achieved by 45.2 million persons in employment, which was an increase of 507,000, or 1.1%, on a year earlier.
In addition to calculating first data for the fourth quarter of 2018, the results published previously for the first three quarters and the year 2018 were also reviewed and, where necessary, new statistical information was incorporated in the calculation of results. As is usual for seasonally and calendar adjusted series, however, modified results may appear in the whole time series from 1991 onwards.
| Unadjusted figures | Figures according to Census X-12-ARIMA | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seasonally and calendar-adjusted | Calendar-adjusted 1 | Calendar-effect | ||||||
| 2010 = 100 | %2 | 2010 = 100 | %3 | 2010 = 100 | %2 | %2 | ||
| 1 For years the calendar-adjusted values are identical with the seasonally and calendar-adjusted values (except for differences due to rounding). 2 Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %. 3 Change on the previous year or previous quarter in %. qtr = quarter | ||||||||
| 2017 | 113.66 | 2.2 | 113.79 | 2.5 | 113.79 | 2.5 | -0.3 | |
| 2018 | 115.28 | 1.4 | 115.44 | 1.5 | 115.44 | 1.5 | 0.0 | |
| 2017 | 1st qtr | 113.40 | 3.4 | 112.84 | 1.1 | 112.63 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 2nd qtr | 112.45 | 0.9 | 113.46 | 0.5 | 112.76 | 2.2 | -1.3 | |
| 3rd qtr | 115.50 | 2.2 | 114.12 | 0.6 | 115.91 | 2.6 | -0.5 | |
| 4th qtr | 113.27 | 2.2 | 114.73 | 0.5 | 113.85 | 2.8 | -0.6 | |
| 2018 | 1st qtr | 114.95 | 1.4 | 115.16 | 0.4 | 114.97 | 2.1 | -0.7 |
| 2nd qtr | 115.09 | 2.3 | 115.68 | 0.5 | 114.98 | 2.0 | 0.4 | |
| 3rd qtr | 116.77 | 1.1 | 115.45 | -0.2 | 117.24 | 1.1 | -0.0 | |
| 4th qtr | 114.30 | 0.9 | 115.47 | 0.0 | 114.56 | 0.6 | 0.3 | |
| Unadjusted figures | Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures according to Census X-12-ARIMA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR billion | Change in %1 | EUR billion | Change in %2 | ||
1 Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year. qtr = quarter | |||||
| 2017 | 3,277.340 | 3.7 | 3,281.332 | 4.0 | |
| 2018 | 3,386.000 | 3.3 | 3,390.740 | 3.3 | |
2017 | 1st qtr | 803.370 | 4.3 | 806.315 | 1.3 |
| 2nd qtr | 808.720 | 2.5 | 816.786 | 1.3 | |
| 3rd qtr | 833.240 | 4.2 | 825.711 | 1.1 | |
| 4th qtr | 832.010 | 4.0 | 832.520 | 0.8 | |
| 2018 | 1st qtr | 828.980 | 3.2 | 837.944 | 0.7 |
| 2nd qtr | 842.860 | 4.2 | 847.652 | 1.2 | |
| 3rd qtr | 858.380 | 3.0 | 851.231 | 0.4 | |
| 4th qtr | 855.780 | 2.9 | 853.913 | 0.3 | |
| New result | Previous result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chain index (2010 = 100) | percentage change1 | chain index (2010 = 100) | percentage change1 | ||
| 1 Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures: Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %. Unadjusted figures: Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %. qtr = quarter | |||||
| Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures according to Census X-12-ARIMA | |||||
| 2017 | 113.79 | 2.5 | 113.79 | 2.5 | |
| 2018 | 115.44 | 1.5 | 115.50 | 1.5 | |
| 2017 | 1st qtr | 112.84 | 1.1 | 112.84 | 1.1 |
| 2nd qtr | 113.46 | 0.5 | 113.46 | 0.5 | |
| 3rd qtr | 114.12 | 0.6 | 114.12 | 0.6 | |
| 4th qtr | 114.73 | 0.5 | 114.73 | 0.5 | |
| 2018 | 1st qtr | 115.16 | 0.4 | 115.15 | 0.4 |
| 2nd qtr | 115.68 | 0.5 | 115.67 | 0.5 | |
| 3rd qtr | 115.45 | -0.2 | 115.44 | -0.2 | |
| 4th qtr | 115.47 | 0.0 | x | x | |
| Unadjusted figures | |||||
| 2017 | 113.66 | 2.2 | 113.66 | 2.2 | |
| 2018 | 115.28 | 1.4 | 115.33 | 1.5 | |
| 2017 | 1st qtr | 113.40 | 3.4 | 113.40 | 3.4 |
| 2nd qtr | 112.45 | 0.9 | 112.45 | 0.9 | |
| 3rd qtr | 115.50 | 2.2 | 115.50 | 2.2 | |
| 4th qtr | 113.27 | 2.2 | 113.27 | 2.2 | |
| 2018 | 1st qtr | 114.95 | 1.4 | 114.95 | 1.4 |
| 2nd qtr | 115.09 | 2.3 | 115.09 | 2.3 | |
| 3rd qtr | 116.77 | 1.1 | 116.77 | 1.1 | |
| 4th qtr | 114.30 | 0.9 | x | x | |
More detailed results will be released by the Federal Statistical Office on 22 February 2019. At that time, the results in the new interactive national accounts dashboard (only in german) will be updated, too.
Due to conversion work on the internet pages, online publications containing further information are not available at present. Copies will be sent by email, if this is requested using our contact form.
