Press release No. 056 of 23 February 2016
WIESBADEN – The German economy continued its moderate growth at the end of 2015. As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) already reported in its first release of 12 February 2016, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.3% – upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment – in the fourth WIESBADEN – The German economy continued its moderate growth at the end of 2015. As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) already reported in its first release ofquarter of 2015 compared with the previous quarter. The economic situation in Germany in 2015 was characterised by solid and steady growth (+0.3% in the third and fourth quarter each and +0.4% in each of the first two quarters). For the whole year of 2015, this was an average increase of +1.7% (calendar adjusted: +1.4%). The provisional result released in January 2016 has largely been confirmed.
| 2014 | 2015 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr |
| +0.7 | –0.1 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
The quarter-on-quarter comparison (upon adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations) shows that positive contributions again came mainly from domestic demand. General government final consumption expenditure was markedly up by 1.0%, while household final consumption expenditure again rose slightly by 0.2%. A positive development was also observed for capital formation. Especially gross fixed capital formation in construction was up (+2.2%) on the third quarter of 2015. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment increased, too (+1.0%). However, that increase was largely attributable to general government, while gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment not attributable to general government recorded a slight decline. On the whole, domestic uses rose by 0.8% (upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment) compared with the third quarter of 2015.
According to provisional calculations, the development of foreign trade had a downward effect on growth because exports of goods declined by 1.7% on the previous quarter. Imports of goods decreased, too, though less strongly (–0.6%). Consequently, the balance of exports and imports of goods and services as a whole, in arithmetical terms, had a negative effect on GDP growth (–0.5 percentage points).
The following information refers to the year-on-year comparison:
Measured by unadjusted figures, economic growth accelerated year on year since summer. The price adjusted GDP rose by 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2015, following increases of 1.7% in the third quarter of 2015 and 1.6% in the second quarter of 2015. However, in the last quarter of 2015 there were two working days more than a year earlier, which produced an above-average calendar effect. Consequently, the calendar adjusted increase (+1.3%) was slightly smaller than in the third (+1.7%) and second quarter (+1.6%).
| 2014 | 2015 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr |
| +2.6 | +1.0 | +1.2 | +1.6 | +1.3 | +1.6 | +1.7 | +2.1 |
The economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2015 was achieved by 43.4 million persons in employment, which was an increase of 412,000, or 1.0%, on a year earlier.
Overall labour productivity (price adjusted gross domestic product per hour worked by persons in employment) was slightly above the level of the previous year (+0.1%) according to provisional calculations. Measured per person in employment, it rose by 1.2%.
In the year-on-year comparison, too, contributions to growth came from domestic demand in the fourth quarter of 2015. Household final consumption expenditure increased by 1.6%, while government final consumption expenditure was up by as much as 2.7%. Government final consumption expenditure includes, among other things, goods and services provided by general government to refugees free of charge. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment rose a price adjusted 6.3% on the fourth quarter of 2014. Gross fixed capital formation in construction grew by 3.3% and a particularly significant year-on-year increase was recorded for gross fixed capital formation in dwellings. Capital formation in other buildings and structures rose, too, with the increase being higher in industrial construction than in public construction. GDP growth was only slowed down by a reduction of inventories (–0.2 percentage points). On the whole, domestic uses were up by 2.3% on a year earlier. The balance of exports and imports did not provide any contribution to growth in a year-on-year comparison. In price adjusted terms, exports of goods and services rose by 5.0% compared with the previous year. There was however a slightly larger increase in imports (+5.8%) in the same period. Consequently, the balance of exports and imports did not provide any contribution to year-on-year GDP growth in arithmetic terms.
On the production side of the gross domestic product, the price adjusted gross value added was higher in almost all economic sectors in the last quarter of 2015 than a year earlier. The largest increases were recorded for construction (+3.6%), information and communication (+3.8%) and business services (+3.5%). In addition, the other service industries – except for financial and insurance activities – and manufacturing (+2.1%) increased their performance in a year-on-year comparison. On the whole, the price adjusted gross value added of all economic sectors was up by 1.9% on the fourth quarter of 2014.
At current prices, the gross domestic product increased by 4.4% and the gross national income by 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared with the fourth quarter of 2014. Net national income at factor costs, consisting of compensation of employees (+4.2%) and property and entrepreneurial income (+4.6%), rose by a total of 4.3%, according to first provisional calculations. Gross wages and salaries of employees increased by 4.4% and net wages and salaries by as much as 4.6%. The average wages and salaries per employee did not rise that much (+3.0% in gross terms and +3.2% in net terms) because the number of employees went up as well (+1.3%) compared with the same quarter one year earlier. The disposable income of households was up by 2.5%, with this rise being slightly higher than that of household final consumption expenditure at current prices (+2.3%).
In addition to calculating first data for the fourth quarter of 2015, the Federal Statistical Office revised the national accounting results published previously for the first three quarters of 2015 and the year of 2015. As reported in the first release of 12 February 2016, this resulted in slight corrections of the rates of change of the price adjusted gross domestic product. Significant corrections were however made regarding individual GDP components. As is usual for seasonally and calendar adjusted series, modified results may also appear in the whole time series from 1991 onwards.
| Unadjusted figures | Figures according to Census X-12-ARIMA, price-adjusted, chain-linked | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At current prices | Price-adjusted, chain-linked | Seasonally and calendar-adjusted | Calendar- adjusted | |||||
| EUR billion | % 1 | 2010 = 100 | % 1 | 2010 = 100 | % 2 | % 1 3 | ||
| 1 Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %. 2 Change on the previous year or quarter in %. 3 As for years, the calendar-adjusted values equal the seasonally and calendar-adjusted values (except for differences due to rounding). qtr = quarter | ||||||||
| 2014 | 2,915.65 | 3.4 | 106.06 | 1.6 | 106.21 | 1.6 | 1.6 | |
| 2015 | 3,025.90 | 3.8 | 107.85 | 1.7 | 107.75 | 1.4 | 1.4 | |
| 2014 | 1st qtr | 715.91 | 4.5 | 105.27 | 2.6 | 105.99 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| 2nd qtr | 716.85 | 2.8 | 104.81 | 1.0 | 105.93 | –0.1 | 1.4 | |
| 3rd qtr | 742.51 | 2.9 | 108.20 | 1.2 | 106.13 | 0.2 | 1.1 | |
| 4th qtr | 740.38 | 3.2 | 105.95 | 1.6 | 106.78 | 0.6 | 1.4 | |
| 2015 | 1st qtr | 739.44 | 3.3 | 106.60 | 1.3 | 107.21 | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| 2nd qtr | 743.42 | 3.7 | 106.50 | 1.6 | 107.63 | 0.4 | 1.6 | |
| 3rd qtr | 770.12 | 3.7 | 110.08 | 1.7 | 107.93 | 0.3 | 1.7 | |
| 4th qtr | 772.92 | 4.4 | 108.21 | 2.1 | 108.22 | 0.3 | 1.3 | |
| 2015 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4 th qtr | |
| At current prices EUR bn. | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 2,220.078 | 531.715 | 548.651 | 560.512 | 579.200 |
| Finalconsumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 1,633.388 | 390.404 | 406.295 | 416.489 | 420.200 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 586.690 | 141.311 | 142.356 | 144.023 | 159.000 |
| Gross capital formation | 569.724 | 151.373 | 131.762 | 156.224 | 130.365 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 606.174 | 136.839 | 152.552 | 156.194 | 160.589 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 200.069 | 45.189 | 49.059 | 48.399 | 57.422 |
| GFCF in construction | 297.653 | 65.549 | 76.853 | 80.817 | 74.434 |
| GFCF in other products | 108.452 | 26.101 | 26.640 | 26.978 | 28.733 |
| Domestic uses | 2,789.802 | 683.088 | 680.413 | 716.736 | 709.565 |
| Exports | 1,419.606 | 342.950 | 355.335 | 358.254 | 363.067 |
| Imports | 1,183.508 | 286.598 | 292.328 | 304.870 | 299.712 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 3,025.900 | 739.440 | 743.420 | 770.120 | 772.920 |
| Price-adjusted, chain-linked Change on the previous year in % | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| Gross capital formation | –0.1 | –1.5 | –3.4 | 1.0 | 3.9 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 2.2 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 4.2 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 4.8 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 6.3 |
| GFCF in construction | 0.3 | –2.2 | –0.1 | 0.2 | 3.3 |
| GFCF in other products | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| Domestic uses | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Exports | 5.4 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| Imports | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 5.8 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Memorandum item: | |||||
| GDP per person in employment | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| GDP per hour worked by persons in employment | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in percentage points | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Gross capital formation | 0.0 | –0.3 | –0.7 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| GFCF in other products | 0.0 | –0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Other fixed assets | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Changes in inventories and so on | –0.5 | –0.4 | –1.0 | –0.3 | –0.2 |
| Domestic uses | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Balance of exports and imports (net exports) | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.9 | –0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2015 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | |
| 1 Only seasonally adjusted. qtr = quarter | ||||
| At current prices EUR bn. | ||||
| Consumption expenditure | 548.484 | 553.299 | 557.493 | 561.535 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 404.602 | 407.370 | 410.332 | 411.817 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 143.882 | 145.929 | 147.161 | 149.718 |
| Gross capital formation | 142.799 | 139.443 | 140.162 | 144.955 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 150.538 | 150.060 | 150.678 | 153.443 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 49.274 | 49.636 | 49.907 | 50.436 |
| GFCF in construction | 74.600 | 73.461 | 73.514 | 75.440 |
| GFCF in other products | 26.664 | 26.963 | 27.257 | 27.567 |
| Domestic uses | 691.283 | 692.742 | 697.655 | 706.490 |
| Exports | 347.801 | 357.305 | 357.231 | 353.848 |
| Imports | 292.164 | 295.894 | 297.929 | 295.375 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 746.920 | 754.153 | 756.957 | 764.963 |
| Price-adjusted, chain-linked Change on the previous quarter in % | ||||
| Consumption expenditure | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Gross capital formation | 1.4 | –2.2 | 0.5 | 2.4 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 1.5 | –0.6 | 0.1 | 1.5 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| GFCF in construction | 1.4 | –1.8 | –0.2 | 2.2 |
| GFCF in other products | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Domestic uses | 0.6 | –0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Exports | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | –0.6 |
| Imports | 2.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Memorandum item: | ||||
| GDP per person in employment | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | –0.0 |
| GDP per hour worked by persons in employment 1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | –0.4 |
| Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in percentage points | ||||
| Consumption expenditure | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Gross capital formation | 0.3 | –0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 0.3 | –0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| GFCF in construction | 0.1 | –0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| GFCF in other products | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Changes in inventories and so on | 0.0 | –0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Domestic uses | 0.6 | –0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Balance of exports and imports (net exports) | –0.2 | 0.6 | –0.3 | –0.5 |
| 2015 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | |
| At current prices EUR bn. | |||||
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 15.028 | 3.645 | 3.812 | 3.802 | 3.769 |
| Industry, excluding construction | 701.177 | 172.530 | 175.341 | 177.572 | 175.734 |
| including: | |||||
| Manufacturing | 615.384 | 149.593 | 155.010 | 157.032 | 153.749 |
| Construction | 128.089 | 25.409 | 31.411 | 34.346 | 36.923 |
| Trade, transport, accommodation and food services | 421.622 | 98.754 | 106.232 | 108.218 | 108.418 |
| Information and communication | 133.401 | 33.653 | 31.918 | 34.411 | 33.419 |
| Financial and insurance activities | 106.599 | 26.842 | 26.687 | 26.440 | 26.630 |
| Real estate activities | 303.976 | 76.291 | 75.227 | 78.037 | 74.421 |
| Business services | 305.038 | 75.850 | 72.557 | 79.573 | 77.058 |
| Public services, education, health | 496.998 | 123.702 | 119.916 | 123.322 | 130.058 |
| Other services | 110.729 | 27.632 | 26.648 | 28.448 | 28.001 |
| Gross value added, total | 2,722.657 | 664.308 | 669.749 | 694.169 | 694.431 |
| Price-adjusted, chain-linked Change on the previous year in % | |||||
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | –1.8 | –1.6 | –2.3 | –2.4 | –0.9 |
| Industry, excluding construction | 2.0 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| including: | |||||
| Manufacturing | 1.7 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Construction | 0.3 | –2.3 | –0.7 | –0.3 | 3.6 |
| Trade, transport, accommodation and food services | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Information and communication | 2.8 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.8 |
| Financial and insurance activities | –0.9 | 0.0 | –1.2 | –2.1 | –0.4 |
| Real estate activities | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Business services | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| Public services, education,health | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Other services | 0.4 | –0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Gross value added, total | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| 2015 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4 th qtr | |
| At current prices EUR bn. | |||||
| Gross national income | 3,091.500 | 757.736 | 746.924 | 789.287 | 797.553 |
| Net national income (factor costs) | 2,260.646 | 552.883 | 541.270 | 580.476 | 586.017 |
| Compensation of employees | 1,543.106 | 359.117 | 377.876 | 380.636 | 425.477 |
| Property and entrepreneurial income | 717.540 | 193.766 | 163.394 | 199.840 | 160.540 |
| Gross wages and salaries of employees | 1,262.717 | 292.590 | 308.731 | 311.969 | 349.427 |
| Net wages and salaries of employees | 838.380 | 194.117 | 200.375 | 211.795 | 232.093 |
| memorandum item: | |||||
| Disposable income of households | 1,757.675 | 435.949 | 435.427 | 440.635 | 445.664 |
| Savings ratio (in %) | 9.7 | 12.9 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 8.4 |
| Change on the previous year in % | |||||
| Gross national income | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 4.2 |
| Net national income (factor costs) | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.3 |
| Compensation of employees | 3.9 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.2 |
| Property and entrepreneurial income | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 4.6 |
| Gross wages and salaries of employees | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.4 |
| Net wages and salaries of employees | 3.7 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.6 |
| Memorandum item: | |||||
| Disposable income of households | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
National accounts data may be accessed via the Destatis website. More detailed results are published in Fachserie 18 “National accounts”, Series 1.2 “Quarterly results“ and Series 1.3 “Seasonally adjusted quarterly results using Census X-12-ARIMA and BV 4.1”. The above and other publications can be downloaded. A detailed quality report on national accounts is available.